Minnesota Vikings Vs. Cincinnati Bengals Same Game Parlay (12/16/23): Expert Predictions
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It may be a backup quarterback battle, but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t some betting value to be found in this matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals. Let’s find some bets to piece together a Vikings vs. Bengals same game parlay for this special Saturday matchup.
Vikings Vs. Bengals Same Game Parlay Picks
The headlines will be absorbed with the fact that Nick Mullens and Jake Browning are leading their teams into this one, rather than Kirk Cousins and Joe Burrow, but there are several other key performers who could have a big day in this one- let’s take a look at a few.
Leg 1: Vikings +10 (-346)
To make this leg parlay-safe, we’ll buy the number all the way out to the significant figure of 10. The Vikings are underdogs here, understandable as a road team, but they should be able to stay in this game. By all accounts, these teams are on a very similar tier; they’re both 7-6, they’re both outside of the top-10 but inside the top-15 in terms of overall DVOA, and of course they’re both down to a backup quarterback.
The big distinction is that with the quarterbacks both out, the best unit on either side is probably the Minnesota defense, which has taken a huge step up this season under coordinator Brian Flores. The Vikings’ defense is sixth in DVOA, compared to 11th for the Bengals’ offense, a track record mostly accumulated with Burrow at the helm. Browning has done a great job so far, but regression has to come as he gradually loses the benefit of being an unknown entity due to a lack of film with which opponents can prepare.
The Vikings may not be able to quite pull this one out on the road and with arguably the lower-tier of the two backup passers, but they don’t need to in order for this leg to be a success. Their defense should prevent Browning and the Bengals from generating enough offensive production to truly pull away and break this alternate spread.
Leg 2: Ty Chandler Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
With Alexander Mattison officially ruled out, Chandler is going to finally get the chance that so many Vikings fans have clamored for him to get for weeks now. He’ll get it against a Bengals run defense that has been pretty rough, ranking 27th in DVOA, 26th in EPA, and 25th in success rate.
Mattison has been one of the worst rushers in the NFL by most metrics this season, and he’s still been above or at least close to this number repeatedly over the past few weeks. Running behind the same o-line, and coached by offensive guru Kevin O’Connell, Chandler should be able to replicate that production, especially given that matchup with Cincy. He’s shown some impressive burst in the opportunities he’s been given thus far, and has even cracked or passed this number a couple of times when backing up Mattison.
In addition to the weak Bengals run defense, and a pass defense that is far from elite but still definitely better, we can expect the Vikings to be a very run-first offense in this one for the sake of simplifying the game for Mullens. The easier they can make things for him the better, and that could mean a heavy dose of Chandler.
Leg 3: TJ Hockenson Over 5.5 Receptions (-105)
After getting blanked for most of last week’s historically low-scoring matchup with the Raiders, Hockenson enjoyed a huge spike in production after Josh Dobbs was benched for Mullens, who hit him for four catches in just two drives. This shouldn’t be a huge surprise, as backup quarterbacks who are new to a system often lean heavily on the large, underneath targets that tight ends provide, but Mullens is a particular enjoyer of the position.
Mullens threw to George Kittle a ton in San Francisco, ushering the star tight end to a record-breaking 2018 season. Hockenson, another talented Iowa Hawkeye tight end, plays a very similar game to Kittle and should give Mullens similar looks. They’re also facing a Cincy defense that gets carved up by tight ends; they’re allowing 6.8 catches and 71.9 yards per game to the position, both of which are the highest figure in the NFL.
With a favorable matchup, a strong track record of leveraging pass-catching tight ends, and a promising string of connections against Las Vegas, betting on the Mullens-Hockenson duo is a great addition to our parlay.
Leg 4: Greg Joseph Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-110)
After a slow start to the year, it’s been a pretty prolific stretch for Joseph. After kicking just two field goals across the first four games of the year, Joseph has had multiple attempts in eight of the past nine. This is due in part to a Vikings offense that has really struggled in the red zone, giving him plenty of chances to convert after drives that fizzle out in the short field.
The Bengals’ red zone offense is just a tick above league average, so nothing really to write home about, but definitely formidable enough to worry the Vikings, who are 28th in offensive red zone efficiency. Less than half of Minnesota’s drives inside the opponent’s 20 yard line have resulted in scores, and with Mullens at the helm- a less precise passer than Kirk Cousins and not nearly as dynamic as Josh Dobbs- that trend isn’t likely to turn around this week.
Same Game Parlay Card For Vikings Vs. Bengals
- Full Parlay Odds: +575
- Vikings +10 (-346)
- Ty Chandler Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- TJ Hockenson Over 5.5 Receptions (-105)
- Greg Joseph Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-110)
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