Virginia Tech vs. Duke: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (12/22/21)

Virginia Tech vs. Duke Betting Odds

The Hokies will travel to Chapel Hill Wednesday night in the ACC’s marquee opening night game. Virginia Tech and Duke are a combined 18-5 entering conference play, and both are KenPom top-25 teams.

The Hokies are coming off a big-time win against St. Bonaventure but have been rather Jekyll and Hyde this season. Losses to Dayton and Wake Forest are paired with wins over the Bonnies and Maryland.

This will be Duke’s first big game since the loss to Ohio State, as the Blue Devils dominated three inferior teams in the meanwhile.

At Cameron Indoor, the Blue Devils are laying almost double digits. However, is the line slightly inflated?

Virginia Tech Hokies Odds

Mike Young is an analytics nerd, who prefers his teams shoot 3s or drive to the rim. But living on the perimeter means living on the edge, and the Hokies’ up-and-down performance this season is a testament to their high-variance play.

However, the regression gods have been good to Virginia Tech so far. The team ranks in the top-10 in both 3-point shooting (40%) and 3-point defense (25.5%), and they top the 70th percentile in spot-up PPP (1.088, 96th percentile) and spot-up PPP allowed (.819, 71st percentile).

While Young has compiled a roster filled with four 40%-plus 3-point shooters, I’m hesitant to believe this level of 3-point discrepancy will continue. Even if their ShotQuality statistics call for positive regression.

But their top player is not a perimeter guy. Keve Aluma is scoring over 14 points per game from the 5, leading the team in usage.

My favorite Hokie this season is former Wofford guard Storm Murphy. Murphy is attacking more than he did in the past, and he’s been uber-efficient in a scoring role (57.3 eFG%). Although his 8.3 points per game don’t pop off the page, he can pop off at any time, including for 18 against the Bonnies and 17 against Radford.

Absolutely filthy from Storm Murphy last night 🔥

Nutmeg ➡️ Lob ➡️ Dunkpic.twitter.com/FIsE1OB41J

— Action Network Colleges (@ActionColleges) November 16, 2021

Duke Blue Devils Odds

In his final year, Coach K is ahead of the curve with his young guys.

Paolo Banchero is building a case to be the No. 1 pick, while underclassmen Trevor Keels and Jeremy Roach compile a backcourt that’s top-five nationally in turnover rate (12.7%). Meanwhile, Wendell Moore continues to be a force from the wing position.

All-in-all, Duke is 12th nationally in eFG% and sixth nationally in offensive efficiency.

Duke will also run on you. It’s top-100 in transition shots (26.3%) and top-50 in average possession length (16.1 seconds). Of course, the team has had some “cramping” issues, so maybe slowing down the offense and working in Banchero would be a promising strategy.

Only seven players in Duke history have scored 40 points in a game. Paolo Banchero was on pace to join that list until cramps got in the way.

His game lit up the Las Vegas strip in the first half. pic.twitter.com/IcUqW1ZznB

— The Brotherhood (@BrotherhoodCBB) November 28, 2021

The defense has been solid, and the Blue Devils are one of the best teams in not fouling. However, opponents are shooting just 60.3% from the charity stripe, which is either a design of the system or due for regression.

Virginia Hokies vs. Duke Blue Devils Prediction and Pick

My pick: Virginia Tech +9.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

This line is just slightly inflated.

KenPom makes this game Duke -7 and Bart Torvik makes it -6.7. If the Hokies can avoid a bad shooting night – wherein regression stats favor them in this one – they’ll keep up with Duke.

I also think Murphy will have success with dribble penetration and Aluma to have success in post-up situations.

Defensively, Virginia Tech is top-50 in allowing transition shots (20.3%) and rank above the 70th percentile in transition PPP allowed (.905). Look for Young to slow this game down — wherein the Hokies rank 332nd in Tempo — and give an advantage to the underdog Hokies.

It’s always tough to fade Coach K and Co., but this is too many points for a talented Hokie team.