Virginia Tech vs North Carolina: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/11/22)

Virginia Tech vs North Carolina Betting Odds

Both these ACC teams had huge wins on Thursday.

North Carolina crushed Virginia in a 20-point win. Virginia managed a measly 43 points while Brady Manek dropped 21 of his own.

Meanwhile, the Hokies handled Notre Dame, giving them a seven-point loss. Keve Aluma and Storm Murphy played excellent in the win.

However, these two have to face each other to move on.

Who has the edge?

Virginia Tech Hokies Odds

Keve Aluma is so good.

He handled Paul Atkinson and the Notre dame interior defense, dropping 20 points on 7-for-10 shooting. He has all the post moves on offense and ranks in the 70th percentile in post-up defense (.716 points per possession allowed).

Meanwhile, Storm Murphy has ice in his veins.

Storm Murphy in 𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗖𝗛.

That's the tweet. Again.

📺 » ESPN2#StoneByStone | #LGH 🦃 pic.twitter.com/GEWsy1qwp7

— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) March 11, 2022

When Murphy transferred from Wofford, he was a bit hesitant to attack and served more of a facilitator. Well, he still has a solid assist rate, but he’s hitting 36% of his 3-point shots and has a 56.5% true-shooting. He’s been a beast for this Virginia Tech squad.

This whole Hokie team can shoot, however. Va Tech hits 38.9% of its 3-point shots, which is fourth nationally. And I wouldn’t expect that number to regress, because there are so many shooters and it hasn’t regressed all season.

It’s the perfect roster fit for Mike Young’s team. The strategy is analytics-based, looking to either get an interior shot with Aluma or launch a 3 with one of the four out.

Virginia Tech is a scary team, and the Hokies should be considered a dark horse to win this tournament if it can get past North Carolina.

North Carolina Tar Heels Odds

North Carolina has worked itself firmly into the field of 68.

The dominant win over Virginia solidified it. North Carolina is only 2-7 in Quad 1 victories, but those wins have come very recently, and it’s 21-1 in the other three quadrants. The Tar Heels are also now top-30 in the NET rankings.

It’s been all about Caleb Love and Armando Bacot this season, but how about Brady Manek? The Oklahoma transfer has yet to have a true signature game until Thursday night. He was impossible to stop on the interior and shot 3-for-7 from 3. Add in seven rebounds and three assists, and he put in a true all-around performance in the biggest game of the season.

BRADY, MANEK🔥 WOW pic.twitter.com/8XRNhiOuvw

— tarheelupdate (@tarheelupdate) March 11, 2022

UNC’s perimeter defense has been shaky this season, and that could prove devastating against a perimeter-based Hokie offense. It’ll be important for them to run teams off the 3-point line and closeout on every shooter, something the Tar Heels have struggled with all season.

If Hubert Davis learned anything from Roy Williams, it’s teaching his team to rebound. UNC paced the ACC in defensive rebounding rate this season, pulling down over 29 per game – the latter is good for sixth nationally.

Virginia Tech vs North Carolina Prediction and Pick

I’m trying to figure out how these teams match up. I think the key will be Keve Aluma against Armando Bacot and Brady Manek.

The Tar Heels have a huge advantage in that area. Bacot is such a force on the boards and defensively, I don’t see Aluma overwhelming UNC on the interior.

Instead, the pressure will fall on Murphy and the rest of the shooters. If the Hokies’ perimeter players get hot, Va Tech moves on. If they don’t this game will swing North Carolina’s way violently.

I’m willing to bank on the latter happening.