Virginia Tech vs West Virginia: Betting Odds, Picks, & Predictions (9/18/21)

Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia Betting Odds

The Hokies have come out the gates firing this season. After taking down No. 10 UNC to start the season and then covering 20 points against MTSU, Virginia Tech is 2-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) to begin their campaign.

Meanwhile, West Virginia started their season with an underwhelming road loss to Maryland – a game in which they were 2.5-point favorites. They bounced right back in a 66-0 thrashing of Long Island University in Week 2.

However, despite Virginia Tech’s great start, they find themselves as short road favorites in this spot.

Are the Mountaineers deserving of that line? Or will Virginia Tech show they’re the team to beat in the ACC? Let’s investigate this matchup and find the best betting angle for this high noon game.

Virginia Tech Hokies Odds

With Virginia Tech, look for a mixed bag on their offensive attack. They’re going to go to a bunch of different RPO looks with Braxton Burmeister, who’s looked pretty good through his first two contests.

Burmeister has completed over 60% of his passes at over seven yards per attempt. Meanwhile, he’s complied 5.5 yards per carry on the ground through his first two games, and he’s currently the team’s leading rusher (94 yards).

Defensively, it’s been complete domination for the Hokies so far this year. Virginia Tech demolished Sam Howell’s Heisman hopes in Week 1, and it held MTSU to just 1.8 yards per carry in Week 2.

Moreover, Virginia Tech is holding opposing quarterbacks to under 60% completion percentage so far this season and have a +2 turnover differential so far this season.

While the Hokies can move the ball, look for head coach Justin Fuente to lean on his defense again in this battle.

West Virginia Mountaineers Odds

Last year, the Mountaineers leaned on their uber-talented running back Leddie Brown. He posted a 1000-yard season in 2020 while rushing for over five yards per carry.

However, Jarret Doege has seemingly taken the reins through these first two weeks, and it’s been a mixed bag. While he’s completing over 60% of his passes for well over eight yards per attempt, but he also tossed two picks in the Week 1 loss to Maryland.

Perhaps the problem is up front, where the West Virginia offensive line ranks outside the top 100 in both Line Yards and Passing Downs Line Yards. That should probably be expected as they’re currently starting multiple Freshmen on the offensive line.

Whether the Mountaineers decide to run or pass moving forward, the team’s strength will be on the defensive line of the ball. They were destroyed by Taulia Tagovailoa in Week 1, but this is a very talented unit.

Not only did West Virginia finish top 20 last season in Defensive Havoc and Success Rate, it brought back about 70% of their defensive reps.

That obviously showed in their Week 2 matchup against Long Island, but the college football world should be right to question the unit’s effectiveness after their Week 1 letdown.

Prediction and Pick

My Pick: West Virginia

I think this is a sell spot for Virginia Tech.

Yes, the Hokies looked great in their first two games, but they’re coming up against the most talented defensive unit they’ve faced yet. And it’s a Mountaineers defensive unit that’s in need of a bounce-back performance.

Plus, there’s plenty of questions surrounding Burmeister and an offense whose advanced statistics are sketchy at best.

Meanwhile, this could be a big spot for West Virginia to get Brown and their running game back on track. The Virginia Tech defense finished just 115th in Defensive Line Yards last season, perhaps giving the younger West Virginia offensive line a break.

At the time of this writing, West Virginia -3 is pulling just 34% of the betting tickets but 50% of the betting handle. Plus, sharp money already moved the line from WVU -2.5 to -3.

Therefore, I’m going to grab the Mountaineers at -3 before the line moves anymore. Trust in the better defense at home, and look for the Hokies to come back down to earth.