NBA Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (11/29/22)

While we take a drastic halt on football with the end of the college football regular season, we now shift our focus more towards basketball as we ease into winter. With a small NBA slate on deck, we have an entertaining primetime game as the Warriors take on the Mavericks in what will be a thrilling battle in the West.

Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds

Thrilling may be an understatement as oddsmakers opened this game at a PK. Bettors lean towards the Warriors as the number has slightly risen to as high as -2 in some shops. With the Mavericks reeling and the Warriors starting to get hot, it will be interesting to see if they continue to trend in their current directions.

As for the total, we are to be expected to see points scored in a flash as oddsmakers opened this one at 225.5 and bettors have hit the over to make it climb as high as 228.5. With both teams playing modern day basketball with an emphasis on three-point shooting and quality looks down low, we can expect both offenses to be firing on all cylinders.

Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction

The Pick: GSW -1.5

After some schematic changes and lineup tweaks, the Warriors are rounding back into form and that spells danger for the rest of the league. After a sluggish start that saw some of the Warrior’s stars sitting out and restricted minutes, they now come in healthy and with more experienced role players to get the offense humming again.

Not only the offense, but the Warriors defense has drastically improved during their win streak as well. Going from one of the worst units in Defensive Rating to around the middle of the pact, the Warriors have used their defense to create more offense and spread the floor in transition which is peak championship Golden State type of play.

As for the Mavericks, they are in the midst of a free fall after a brutal four game stretch. Dropping all four, they are in desperate need for a win back at home. Sadly, it doesn’t get much easier for them as they are on short rest and get a rejuvenated Warriors squad.

Opposing defenses are figuring out how to shut down the Mavericks offense by double teaming Luka beyond the perimeter and forcing someone else to beat them. Relying on Luka’s extremely high usage to be successful, the Mavericks now need to figure out a different way to attack the defense or else they are doomed to repeat their recent failures.

Betting Trends

• The Warriors are 11-6 SU as a favorite on the road this season
• The Mavericks are 2-8-1 ATS at home so far this season

Key Matchups

Can the Mavericks rediscover their defensive identity by limiting the Warriors dual threat offense? 

Warriors three-point shooting vs Mavs perimeter defense

The Mavericks over the recent years have molded their identity to a more modern style of basketball. They strictly limit their shot selections with threes and quality looks down low while trying to take away opposing offenses perimeter looks and cuts to the lane.

While it was successful to start the season against weaker competition, they have now struggled in their recent outings when they went against playoff contending units who specialize in dual scoring. The Warriors will be no different as they rank number one in three-point rate and can stretch out the defense to do damage down low.

While the Warriors lack a true big man after the departure of James Wiseman to the G League, Curry and Wiggins bring in a lethal mid-range game from high quality looks off of screens to punish defenses who go all in on defending the perimeter. Simply put, the Warriors offense will be too much for the reeling Mavericks defense to handle.

Verdict

With the Mavericks reeling after being exposed by championship level competition, I will take the Warriors offense to get the job done with an improved defense in what may be too much for the Mavericks to overcome.

Golden State Warriors Starting Lineup

PG: Steph Curry
SG: Klay Thompson
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Draymond Green
C: Kevon Looney

Dallas Mavericks Starting Lineups

PG: Luka Doncic
SG: Spencer Dinwiddie
SF: Josh Green
PF: Dorian Finney-Smith
C: Dwight Powell

Key Injuries

Golden State Warriors Injuries: N/A

Dallas Mavericks Injuries: Reggie Bullock (O)