Golden State Warriors Vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Player Props & Picks (12/25/23)

The past two champions, Golden State and Denver go toe-to-toe in the Mile High City on Christmas Day. This article covers our favorite Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Player Props and Picks, so take a look and see if you want to tail us.

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Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Player Prop Picks

The two different player props from the Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Christmas Day game are Nikola Jokic to record ten or more assists at +114 and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to hit fewer than two three-pointers at (-180.)

Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 Assists (+114)

Let’s take a look at what Nikola Jokic did last Christmas: 41 points, 15 rebounds, and 15 assists on 64% shooting from the field. Even more important than that was the 39 minutes he played in regulation in that game; if Jokic plays close to 40 minutes here, we love his chances of recording double-digit assists, especially at plus-money odds.

Golden State has been poor at defending opposing centers this season, allowing the eighth-most points and most assists of any team in the NBA. Draymond Green’s absence further complicates things, as Green is amongst the best interior defenders in the league; his physicality, athleticism, and defensive IQ make him an extremely tough opponent.

However, without Green, the Warriors will be forced to rely on Kevon Looney and Trayce Jackson-Davis to stop Jokic. Looney often gets in foul trouble when playing against “Joker,” committing between four and five fouls in six of his past seven games. If Looney gets into foul trouble, it will be up to the rookie, Jackson-Davis, to stop one of the greatest centers in NBA history.

Even if TJD distracts Jokic with his length and athleticism, he will still be able to find teammates for open looks or on cuts throughout the game. Golden State’s defense isn’t exactly top-notch this season; it ranks 16th in defensive rating and opponent points in the paint. Denver’s players will get plenty of clean looks off of Jokic passes in this one.

Lastly, Jokic has recorded double-digit assists in three of his past five games against the Warriors. Green played in most of those games, too, so not having him will open up a completely new world for Jokic.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Under 1.5 Threes (-180)

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a vital piece to the Denver Nuggets and their hopes to win back-to-back NBA Championships; however, KCP has not been hitting the Over on this prop much, failing to hit at least two three-pointers in seven of his past nine games.

It is not because he is struggling to shoot either; his 40% mark from deep is about standard for KCP. Unfortunately, the volume is the problem, which is troubling for three-point props. In his past nine games, he has averaged only 2.2 three-point attempts per game, despite playing close to 29 minutes per game in that stretch.

While we mentioned above that Golden State’s defense is fairly poor this season, it does at least rank sixth in opponent 3P% (34.5%.) Further, the Dubs have allowed opponents to shoot merely 32% from behind the arc in their past three games and allow the second-lowest 3P% when they are on the road.

Denver will knock down plenty of shots in its Christmas Day matchup against Golden State, but we believe it will be from players other than KCP.

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