The Golden State Warriors (6-2) meet the Denver Nuggets (7-1) this Wednesday (11/8/23). Get Warriors vs. Nuggets moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, starting lineups, injuries, and key matchup below.
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction
Although Jamal Murray is out, Denver’s offense still features the undisputed best player in the world. Per Basketball Reference, Nikola Jokic currently ranks second across the NBA in true shooting points added, which measures “the number of extra points added by true shot attempts made above league average.” Essentially, he’s maintaining superb efficiency despite the large volume.
At 284-pounds, Jokic can back down Golden State’s undersized frontcourt and dominate on post ups. He’s too large and too skilled for Kevon Looney to handle in isolation, so the Warriors are basically forced to constantly double the reigning Finals MVP. It’s been a common theme for Golden State, as they are allowing the second most assists per game to centers.
Jokic’s historic passing will punish a Warriors defense that can struggle to execute rotations, especially on the road. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (46.9 3PT%) and Michael Porter Jr (37.5 3PT%) have the shooting chops to consistently capitalize on Jokic’s playmaking and gravity too. Meanwhile, Aaron Gordon in the dunker’s spot will terrorize a Warriors defense that generally plays below the rim.
Finally, Draymond Green is out for this matchup. Golden State’s defense usually falls apart without their leader on the court cleaning up messes and directing rotations. Gary Payton II is questionable with an illness too, so the Warriors may lose one of their top perimeter defenders as well.
Overall, the Nuggets are scoring 119.2 points per 100 possessions, and it’s not due to shooting luck either. Per ShotQuality, Denver’s offense averages 1.19 expected points per possession based on their shot quality, so their production is highly replicable. Backing them to reach 116 points in this spot is the best bet, especially since Denver has absolutely dominated offensively when playing on their home-court.
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction: Nuggets over 115.5 Points
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Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Best Odds
The Denver Nuggets enter this contest favored by 3.5 points despite Jamal Murray’s absence. Golden State must win here about 40.1 percent of the time for their +150 moneyline to hold a positive expected value.
Golden State Warriors Starting Lineup
Denver Nuggets Starting Lineup
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Injuries
Draymond Green is out for Golden State, while Gary Payton II is questionable. Chris Paul will likely get the start with Green absent. On the other side, Jamal Murray and Vlatko Cancar are both out, while Nikola Jokic is probable.
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Key Matchups
Denver Nuggets Offensive Rebounding
Golden State was an average rebounding team last year, but they have slipped to 21st in opponent offensive rebound percentage. The season is still young; however, the Warriors appear more vulnerable on the boards than usual. Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr all currently rank in the top 35 of offensive rebound percentage, so it could get ugly for Golden State. If Denver leverages their massive size advantage to secure extra possessions, then their offense will be extremely productive.
Julian Strawther 3PT Shooting
Strawther entered the draft as an experienced, lethal motion shooter. It didn’t take long for him to display his value; the rookie exploded for 21 points on 5/9 from three against New Orleans last game. If Strawther can chip in 10 to 15 points here, it would inject a massive boost into the bench and provide Jokic with another weapon when Porter Jr or Caldwell-Pope rest. He’s not an essential piece to Denver hitting 116 points, but it would give the starters a higher shooting efficiency margin for error.