The Golden State Warriors (7-8) face the Phoenix Suns (8-6) this Wednesday (11/22/23). Get Warriors vs. Suns moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, starting lineups, injuries, and key matchups below.
Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns Prediction
With Devin Booker and Kevin Durant on the court, Phoenix is scoring 127.5 points per 100 possessions across 141 minutes. Both are lethal off-ball shooters that can also break down the defense off the dribble, thus granting Phoenix’s offense versatility. Grayson Allen (48.6 3PT%) and Eric Gordon (38.8 3PT%) are simultaneously pulling defenders away from the basket, while Jusuf Nurkic creates space via screens, dominates the offensive glass, and adds interior scoring. The starting five fit together well, and their matchup is intriguing here.
Defensive leader Draymond Green is out due to suspension, so Chris Paul will once again get the nod. Golden State subsequently fields a porous point-of-attack defense, as Paul is a negative defender at this stage of his career. The same can be said of Klay Thompson, who has clearly lost a step. Factor in Curry’s average defense, and Phoenix can routinely hunt mismatches on the perimeter. With Green out, there is nobody to clean up mistakes too, which magnifies Phoenix advantages.
Meanwhile, Jusuf Nurkic has the size and physicality to get the better of Kevon Looney, especially when Nurkic catches the ball going downhill on a roll. Where is the help defense coming from? Andrew Wiggins isn’t leaving Kevin Durant’s side even if a meteor was about to strike Earth. Golden State’s guards cannot sag off of Allen and Gordon, who are both clearing 42% on catch and shoot threes. Abandoning Booker is a defensive death sentence.
Overall, Phoenix should open the game strong and exploit Golden State’s defensive woes (which are dramatically enhanced on the road). Taking the Suns to score 29 points in the first quarter is the best bet here.
Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns Prediction: Suns 1st Quarter Over 28.5 Points
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Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns Best Odds
The Suns are favored by 2.5 points, so the books must be expecting a close game. For Golden State’s +124 moneyline to be profitable in the long run, they need to win this matchup about 44.7 percent of the time. Otherwise, the bet owns a negative expected value.
Golden State Warriors Starting Lineup
Phoenix Suns Starting Lineup
Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns Injuries
Draymond Green and Gary Payton II are both out for Golden State, while Bradley Beal, Yuta Watanabe, and Damion Lee hold the same designation for Phoenix.
Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns Key Matchups
Suns Free Throws
Golden State currently ranks 26th in opponent free throw rate; it was an issue last season too. Unfortunately for them, Phoenix is 6th in free throw rate and roster numerous players that can get to the stripe at a steady rate. Free throws inherently have a large expected points per possession and represent easy production, so the Suns own an excellent chance of hitting the over if Golden State continues to foul.