Washington Commanders vs. Indianapolis Colts Preview (10/30/22): Betting Odds, Prediction, Depth Chart
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The 3-4 Washington Commanders head to Indianapolis following an upset win over the Green Bay Packers, thanks to a strong performance by QB Taylor Heinicke in his first start of the season. Meanwhile, The Colts have benched QB Matt Ryan after a loss to the Titans in favor of second year QB Sam Ehlinger, who will be getting his first ever start. Let’s check out the injuries, depth charts, and matchups to see which quarterback coming off the bench has the advantage.
Washington Commanders Vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds
The Colts are home favorites (-3) versus the Commanders (+3). The over/under is set at a low 40.5, as this is a hard line to predict with two unproven quarterbacks leading their respective teams.
Washington Commanders Vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction
The Commanders have some confidence going into this matchup after securing back to back wins the past two weeks. After a rough start including a pick six in his first six pass attempts, QB Taylor Heinicke helped spark the Commanders offense in wake of Carson Wentz’s injury. WR Terry McLaurin also had his first big game in a few weeks, putting up 73 yards and a touchdown on 5 receptions, including this incredible catch for the touchdown.
It is spooky szn after all 👻
📺 #GBvsWAS FOX pic.twitter.com/gJHElJxRn1
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) October 23, 2022
The Commanders defense also played exceptionally well on third down, giving up zero third down conversions all game last week. They however had zero sacks or interceptions versus the Packers, and will need more turnovers and sacks to swing momentum to their side.
After a tough loss to the Titans and a shoulder injury to QB Matt Ryan, the Colts are putting their trust in 2021 6th round pick Sam Ehlinger. The supporting cast for Ehlinger’s first start is definitely questionable, as poor offensive line play and underwhelming wide receiver play have plagued the Colts thus far. The Colts are tied for 3rd worst in scoring offense, and it’s hard to imagine that improving with an inexperienced quarterback. Best case scenario, Ehlinger’s legs provide a playmaking dimension to the offense that a Matt Ryan led Colts lacked. Ehlinger should look out wide to speedy WR Parris Campbell, who had a good game versus the Titans putting up 70 yards and a touchdown.
Air Force 1️⃣.
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/muLgLQQYEy
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) October 23, 2022
On defense, the Colts hope to have 3x first team all pro LB Shaquille Leonard back. Leonard has only played one game this season as he’s been recovering from offseason surgery and suffered a concussion in week 4. Leonard’s return could help spark more game changing plays and will undoubtedly bring one of the team’s leaders back on the field.
I’m taking the Commanders to upset the Colts on the road this week. There are too many questions surrounding new quarterback Sam Ehlinger, and Heinicke at least has some experience playing which should give him an advantage.
Prediction: Commanders 21-13, Under hits.
Betting Trends
- Commanders are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win
- Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss
Key Injuries
Washington Commanders Injuries: Dyami Brown (Q), Jahan Dotson (Q), Logan Thomas (Q), William Jackson III (Q), Nate Gerry (Q), Carson Wentz (O), Chase Young (Q)
Indianapolis Colts Injuries: Shaquille Leonard (Q), Keke Coutee (Q), Matt Ryan (O), JoJo Domann (Q), Kwity Paye (Q), Grant Stuard (Q)
Commanders vs Colts Key Matchups
The Colts Offensive Line vs the Commanders Defensive Front
The performance of Ehlinger will rely heavily on how well the offensive line plays. Matt Ryan was tied for 5th most sacked quarterback per game, and Ehlinger will need better pass protection in order for the Colts to win this game. This poor offensive line play has also hurt the Colts rushing attack. Despite having the 2021 rushing yards leader in Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis has the third worst run game in the league based on yards per game. The Commanders defensive line got good news that DE Chase Young will likely return to practice this week, but unfortunately is unlikely to play Sunday. Even without Young, the Commanders defensive line has played strong, with the league’s best pressure rate when rushing four or less defenders.
The Washington Commanders have generated a league-high 37.4% pressure rate with 4-or-fewer pass rushers this season.
WAS Pressure Leaders (2022)
🥇 Montez Sweat: 21 (T-4th in NFL)
🥈 Jonathan Allen: 18 (2nd among IDL)
🥉 Daron Payne: 14 (5th among IDL)#WASvsCHI | #HTTC pic.twitter.com/MXYOo0z31A— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 13, 2022
Commanders Receiving Corps vs Colts Secondary
It’s the weekend before Halloween, so Scary Terry and friends will be out to give the Colts DBs nightmares. Not only did McLaurin have the eye popping 37 yard touchdown shown above, but a crucial first down catch on 3rd and 9 to seal the game and prevent a Packers comeback. While some of the Commanders weaponry like WR Jahan Dotson, WR Dyami Brown, and TE Logan Thomas are still questionable to play versus the Colts, WR Curtis Samuel and RB Antonio Gibson showed they could step up to help the passing attack with Samuel putting up 53 yards on 5 receptions and Gibson catching a touchdown pass. The Colts 7th best passing defense should challenge these Commanders receivers, particularly after a strong game against the Titans where they did not give up a single offensive touchdown.
Washington Commanders Depth Chart
QB: Taylor Heinicke
RB1: Brian Robinson Jr.
RB2: Antonio Gibson
LWR: Terry McLaurin
RWR: Jahan Dotson
SWR: Curtis Samuel
TE1:Logan Thomas
Indianapolis Colts Depth Chart
QB: Sam Ehlinger
RB1: Jonathan Taylor
RB2: Nyheim Hines
LWR: Alec Pierce
RWR: Parris Campbell
SWR: Michael Pittman Jr.
TE1: Mo Alie-Cox
