Get Commanders vs. Rams player prop picks & odds for the (12/17/23) matchup
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Commanders vs. Rams Player Prop Picks
The Los Angeles Rams (6-7) and the Washington Commanders (4-9) square off this Sunday (12/17/23) in L.A.’s SoFi Stadium. The Rams’ offense has been humming lately as they have won 4 of their last 5 games, while the Commanders’ defense is struggling during their current 4-game losing streak. That should create some interest player prop bets in this game.
This article analyzes the betting odds for player prop bets in this matchup and recommends the best Commanders vs. Rams player prop bets.
Sam Howell over 38.5 pass attempts (-114 at FanDuel)
One of our favorite player prop bets this season has been the over on Sam Howell’s passing attempts. This bet has cashed in 10 of Howell’s 13 games this season. He is currently leading the league with 39.2 passing attempts per game and he has at least 41 attempts in eight of his last 10 games.
Adding to our confidence in this bet this week is that the Commanders’ starting RB, Brian Robinson Jr., is unlikely to play in this game due to a hamstring injury. Without Robinson Jr. in the backfield, the Commanders are likely to be even more pass-heavy than usual.
While Chris Rodriguez will likely see most of the rushing work, especially on early downs, the biggest beneficiary if Robinson Jr. misses the game will be backup Antonio Gibson. The longtime Commanders RB is an excellent pass-catching back and if he’s on the field for more snaps this week, that should create a few more opportunities for Howell to rack up some easy pass attempts on screens and checkdowns.
The Rams also should be a good matchup for Howell to have a pass-heavy game. While their pass defense has improved over the last few weeks, for most of the season they were much better against the run than against the pass. That’s a big reason why they have faced 35.5 pass attempts per game, 9th most in the league.
The expected game script also supports this pick. Part of the reason for Howell’s heavy passing volume this season is simply the Commanders’ offensive philosophy under offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. Another big reason is their horrendous defense that has had them playing from behind practically every possession. They are dead last in defensive DVOA and EPA and they are allowing the most points per game (30.4), total yards (379.8), and passing yards (266.0), and we could keep going.
The Rams are nearly a touchdown favorite in this game (-6.5) and the over/under is 50.5 total points, tied for the highest of the week. There should be plenty of offense in this game, and that means another high-volume passing day for Sam Howell. It’s also worthing noting that FanDuel has this line 1 attempt lower than most other sportsbooks as of this writing, so it’s worth heading over there if you want to tail this pick.
Matthew Stafford over 267.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Speaking of that porous Commanders defense, we’re expecting Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to tear them apart in this game.
Stafford has been excellent since returning from an injury in week 11, leading the league in passing touchdowns and ranking 6th in passer rating over that span. While his yardage totals have not reached the level of this week’s line – he’s averaging 255 yards per game this season and 248 over his last four – the extremely favorable matchup explains the higher line this week.
Stafford has gone over his prop line in back-to-back games and has amassed 279 and 294 yards, respectively, over his last two games. He also did that against two of the best defenses in the league in the Browns and Ravens (on the road), and now he gets the cupcake Commanders matchup.
Washington has allowed 9 of the 13 quarterbacks they have faced this season to go over their passing yards prop line. They also have allowed over 267 passing yards to a QB nine different times, including in three of their last four games. Stafford is more talented than most of those QBs and also has better weapons than most of them. Everything is set up for a massive day for Stafford in this matchup.
Once again it’s worth mentioning that FanDuel is the best sportsbook at which to place this bet, as most other sportsbooks have set the line six yards higher at 273.5 with equivalent odds.
Cooper Kupp over 72.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Let’s complement our Stafford bet by picking another prop bet for one of his wide receivers. It was difficult for us to choose between Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua for our third player prop bet in this game. Ultimately we like both talented wideouts to go over their number this week. Nacua’s line is at 66.5 at FanDuel, a number he’s surpassed in three of his last four games.
Despite the higher number and the less consistent recent production, we feel even better about Kupp going over 72.5 yards in this game. He is the more experienced and probably more talented player than Nacua at this point in their respective careers. He also has a longer track record of success with Stafford.
While Kupp went five straight games without gaining more than 48 receiving yards, he busted out of that slump last week with 8 catches for 115 yards against the Ravens. We are betting that game will launch Kupp into a strong finish to the season as the Rams make a push for an NFC Wild Card spot. With the stakes ratcheting up even higher, we also expect Stafford to rely more and more on his favorite wide receiver.
Yet again, if you want to tail this pick, be sure to place your bet at FanDuel, as most other sportsbooks have the line five yards higher at 77.5 with equivalent odds.