Washington Commanders vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds, Picks, and Predictions (12/24/22)

By Jack Smith | Dec 23, 2022, 3:15pm

As the NFC Playoff hunt heats up, two teams fighting for a spot meet up for a Christmas Eve matchup as the Washington Commanders head to San Francisco to take on the 49ers. The Commanders are fighting for a spot in the Wild Card as they currently sit at 7-6-1. After a brutal Sunday night loss against the also-contending Giants, they need to bounce back with a win to still stay in this race. The 49ers currently sit at 10-4 and sit atop of the NFC West. They are close to clinching the division as well as they have recently been playing their hottest football.

Brock Purdy has been filling in for Jimmy G after he was listed out for the season and he has stepped up like a veteran despite never playing before. Drafted last in the NFL Draft, he has helped lift San Francisco to two consecutive wins. If he can continue playing at this level, the 49ers will be scary come playoff time. Taylor Heinicke still is the starter for Washington, but original starter Carson Wentz is now back from IR. Heinicke has played well but after the tough loss to New York, coach Ron Rivera has stated they will go back to Wentz if the team continues to struggle. Is there a possibility that we see Wentz enter the game if Heinicke struggles early? Let’s get into this game’s picks and predictions.

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Washington Commanders vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds

With how hot the 49ers are playing and having this game at home, they enter this game as favorites with moneyline odds at -350. They also enter as pretty decently-sized spread line favorites at -7.5 points so at least expected to win by a touchdown and then some. The 49ers have won their last seven games and only one of those games have been decided by seven points or less so the line makes sense. The Commanders have had a hot run after starting the season 1-5 to get up to seven wins. Their 20-12 loss against the Giants definitely knocked them down to the ground a little and will be interesting to see how this team is able to bounce back. Heinicke has played well in his stretch but the Commanders’ have still shown their reluctance to commit to him fulltime and that commitment could end quite soon if they decide to give the helm back to Wentz.

The over/under total for this game is currently 39.5 points which is low but both of these teams are very defensive-heavy teams. The 49ers currently average 24.1 PPG while the Commanders average 18.9 PPG. The 49ers also only allow 15 PPG and the Commanders allow 19.7.

Washington Commanders vs. San Francisco 49ers Picks & Predictions

My Pick: San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-110)

With how hot the 49ers are playing, I am taking them and the points on Christmas Eve. This defense is playing as good as anybody and this offense has been high-flying. The addition of Christian McCaffrey in the backfield has been great as well and don’t see any team beating this squad outside the Eagles at this point. I am still wondering how Heinicke will play and if they decide to put Wentz in, he may be rusty with his lack of reps in the past weeks. I could see this being close to start, but ultimately see the 49ers running away with this one at home.

I may steer away from the total in this game but I like the Under with how well this 49ers defense has played. I think the Commanders may have a tough time moving the ball down the field and the 49ers defense will be able to capitalize on big play opportunities.

Betting Trends

Commanders are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
49ers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Under is 10-1 in Commanders last 11 games following an ATS loss.
Under is 15-7 in 49ers last 22 games overall.
Commanders are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 meetings in San Francisco.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams.

Key Injuries

Washington Commanders:

Saahdiq Charles, Out; Benjamin St-Juste, Out; Chase Young, Out

San Francisco 49ers:

Tarvarius Moore, Out; Samuel Wommack III, Out; Kevin Givens; Out; Jimmy Garoppolo, Out; Deebo Samuel; Out

Key Matchup

Brock Purdy vs. Washington Commanders Defense

The biggest matchup will be QB Brock Purdy against this Commanders defense. Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant in the NFL Draft but has played like a 1st rounder in his two games thus far. It isn’t hard to succeed in a Kyle Shanahan-schemed offense but he truly has stepped and showed the moment isn’t too big for him. Purdy threw for two TDs in his outing against the Buccaneers and Seahawks. It’s not everyday a guy with no experience outshines Tom Brady. If he can continue playing at this level, there’s no limit to how far this team can go. The Commanders defense allows less than 20 points a game so he will have his work cut out for him.

Washington Commanders Depth Chart

QB: Taylor Heinicke
RB1: Brian Robinson Jr.
RB2: Antonio Gibson
LWR: Terry McLaurin
RWR: Jahan Dotson
SWR: Curtis Samuel
TE1: Logan Thomas

San Francisco 49ers Depth Chart

QB: Brock Purdy
RB1: Christian McCaffrey
RB2: Jordan Mason
LWR: Ray-Ray McCloud III
RWR: Brandon Aiyuk
SWR: Jauan Jennings
TE1: George Kittle

Jack Smith

Jack is a Hoosier by birth and Hoosier by alum. Full of hot takes but sharper predictions. Residing now in the Chicago area. When he's not chowing down on deep dish pizza and Italian beef, he's watching and betting sports. Junkie for everything CBB, NBA, NFL, CFB, and MLB. Here to feed you a system to follow that might even be better than the one Tom Brady was gifted his whole career.