Way Too Early 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Order Based on NFL Projected Win Totals

Get a look at the Way Too Early 2024 NFL Mock Draft that features Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr, and Drake Maye. Get 2024 NFL Mock Draft selections for all 32 teams for next season projected on NFL win totals from this year.

Way Too Early NFL Mock Draft 2024

The 2023 NFL draft just concluded, so now it’s time to take a nice break and recover before we start looking ahead to the 2024 class…

Just kidding. In this article, I provide an early 2024 NFL mock draft with teams ordered based on their current projected win totals. I didn’t include any trades in this mock, and as you’ll see with the first pick, that likely won’t actually be the case. Let’s get to work.

Arizona Cardinals

#1: Arizona Cardinals – WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

With a roster in full rebuild mode and Kyler Murray’s status very much up in the air after a torn ACL late in the year, the Cardinals have the lowest projected win total in the NFL. Could they move on from Murray and draft Caleb Williams here? It’s not completely out of the realm of possibilities. If not, they would likely trade down to one of the many teams in the Williams sweepstakes.

I’m not including trades in this mock and I’m not comfortable projecting the Cardinals moving on from Murray just yet, so I’ll give him the best wide receiver prospect since Ja’Marr Chase. Marvin Harrison Jr. is coming off a monstrous sophomore season with 77 catches for 1,263 yards and 14 touchdowns. Harrison Jr. is the favorite to be the top non-quarterback taken next year.

Arizona Cardinals

#2: Arizona Cardinals (from Houston Texans) – OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State

The Cardinals acquired this pick when they facilitated a Texans trade up for Will Anderson Jr., and they’ll be ecstatic if they have this much control over the top of the 2024 draft. Again, I’ll circumvent replacing Murray for now and give the Cardinals an offensive tackle that might have been a top five pick this year had he not returned to school. Fashanu was outstanding in pass protection last season, allowing no sacks and just seven pressures as a true sophomore in the Big Ten.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

#3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers – QB Caleb Williams, USC

The 2022 Heisman-winning quarterback, Caleb Williams would have been the #1 pick in this year’s draft and he will be next year, barring anything drastic taking place. The Buccaneers will likely need to trade up to acquire him if they don’t land the top draft pick – Williams is -550 to be the #1 pick on DraftKings. Williams is poised with the ability to create out of structure and remarkable processing ability for his age.

Indianpolis Colts

#4: Indianapolis Colts – OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame

Currently +2500 to be the #1 pick next year on DraftKings, Joe Alt is the second-ranked offensive tackle in this class. Drake Maye will likely wind up being taken ahead of him, but the Colts just took their franchise quarterback in Anthony Richardson. Alt was the top graded tackle in the country last year according to PFF and is a people mover with ideal physical traits for the left tackle position.

washington football team

#5: Washington Commanders – QB Drake Maye, North Carolina

You can make the case that Drake Maye would have been the #1 pick in this year’s draft, and it’s not inconceivable that he could still go #1 next year over Williams. Maye had a prolific 2022 season with 4,321 passing yards and 38 touchdowns to seven interceptions and he could be even better in 2023 with the hire of new UNC offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey. The Commanders will start Sam Howell, Maye’s predecessor at UNC, this season, but as a fifth-round pick, there’s no guarantee he’s the starter past this season.

los angeles rams

#6: Los Angeles Rams – DE Jared Verse, Florida State

There’s a strong chance the Rams are in the Williams and Maye race next year, but both are off the board, so we’ll go in a different direction. Verse could have been an early first round pick this year, but he returned to Florida State for his senior season. A former transfer from the University of Albany, Verse made a seamless transition to the FBS with nine sacks and 36 pressures for the Seminoles. The Rams could use another pass rusher to compliment Aaron Donald.


Oakland Raiders

#7: Las Vegas Raiders – CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama

A rare freshman starter for Nick Saban, Kool-Aid McKinstry allowed just a 46.3% catch rate and a 57.9 passer rating in coverage last year according to PFF. Now entering his junior year, McKinstry will take on more of a leadership role in the Alabama secondary. He’s the top cornerback prospect at this time, and the Raiders still need a corner after adding Tyree Wilson to their front seven in the first round this year.

Green Bay Packers

#8: Green Bay Packers – LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr., Clemson

The son of a former All Pro NFL linebacker of the same name, Jeremiah Trotter Jr. is coming off a monstrous sophomore season with 13 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks, and two interceptions. He has the size to stack and shed blocks with the agility and explosiveness to make tackles in the open field and hold up in coverage – he was the fourth-highest graded Power Five linebacker in coverage last year per PFF.

Tennessee Titans

#9: Tennessee Titans – TE Brock Bowers, Georgia

It’s difficult to find anything resembling a weakness in Brock Bowers’s game. He has the size and strength to dominate at the catch point and the agility and explosiveness to generate yardage in the open field. He’s a consistent, willing blocker and can be lined up all over the formation – Georgia has often given him carries in the backfield just to get the ball in his hands as much as possible. Bowers has 1,824 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns through two seasons at Georgia and is still just 20 years old.

New England Patriots

#10: New England Patriots – DE Dallas Turner, Alabama

Dallas Turner is coming off a relatively underwhelming sophomore campaign, but the former five-star edge is just scratching the surface of his potential. At 6’4”, 240 lbs, Turner explodes off the line of scrimmage and has the type of agility and awareness in coverage that suggest a move to off-ball linebacker wouldn’t be inconceivable. Alabama will be reliant on Turner having a big season for their defense, and that could translate to him being a top ten pick.

Chicago Bears

#11: Chicago Bears – DE J.T. Tuimoloau, Ohio State

Against Penn State last season, J.T. Tuimoloau had one of the best games ever by a college football defensive lineman. That’s not hyperbole – he had three tackles for loss, two sacks, two interceptions, one pick-six, one forced fumble, and a fumble recovery. The rest of the season saw its share of ups and downs, but Tuimoloau is a breakout candidate in his second year in Jim Knowles’s defense. He would give Chicago a cornerstone defensive lineman where they desperately need one.

Chicago Bears

#12: Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers) – OT J.C. Latham, Alabama

After selecting a top player in the trenches on the defensive side, let’s give the Bears an offensive lineman to build around. J.C. Latham played guard for the Tide in his freshman season before playing right tackle last year and surrendering no sacks on 517 pass-blocking snaps. A former five-star recruit and the #3 overall player in the 2021 class, Latham might be the Tide’s best player this upcoming season.

Atlanta Falcons

#13: Atlanta Falcons – DE Maason Smith, LSU

It was highly disappointing that former five-star recruit Maason Smith missed all but eight snaps in 2022 after he tore his ACL, but he should be ready to make a big impact this season. Smith was featured in Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List last summer after hitting 19.5 mph on the GPS tracker over the offseason – that type of speed is rare in a 6’5”, 300 lb frame. Smith would inject elite talent into Atlanta’s biggest area of need on the defensive line.

New York Giants

#14: New York Giants – WR Xavier Worthy, Texas

With Bijan Robinson off to the NFL, Texas should emphasize the passing game much more this season, and that will benefit Xavier Worthy. Through his first two collegiate seasons, Worthy has 122 catches for 1,741 yards and 21 touchdowns. Worthy reportedly played through a major injury during the second half of the 2022 season, and now fully healthy, we should see the best version of Worthy this season.


Denver Broncos

#15: Denver Broncos – DT Michael Hall Jr., Ohio State

As a Michigan fan, I hate how many Ohio State defenders I have to put in this first round mock, but they should be loaded this year. Hall has a twitched up 6’2”, 290 lb frame, and he possesses all of the explosiveness and power you’d want in a three-tech defensive lineman. Look for him to be one of the best defensive linemen in the Big Ten this season, and that could translate into first round billing. Here, the Broncos scoop him up to fill their need of interior pass rush.

Pittsburgh Steelers

#16: Pittsburgh Steelers – WR Troy Franklin, Oregon

The 2024 rookie wide receiver class might be special, and Oregon’s Troy Franklin is a big part of it. Franklin highlighted his impressive deep ability in 2022 as he caught passes from Bo Nix amidst a massively productive season. Nix returning in 2023 should mean more in store from the duo. Franklin should test off the charts next year and would provide a downfield target to round out an ascending offensive nucleus in Pittsburgh.

Minnesota Vikings

#17: Minnesota Vikings – QB Quinn Ewers, Texas

The Vikings only have Kirk Cousins under contract for one more season, and while they spent a fifth round pick on BYU product Jaren Hall this year, they will likely be in the quarterback market next offseason. Ewers flashed elite upside against Alabama early last season before suffering through injuries to close the year. Now fully healthy, Ewers has shaved the infamous mullet and seems determined to prove the doubters wrong in Austin.

Seattle Seahawks

#18: Seattle Seahawks – QB Michael Penix, Washington

When Kalen DaBoer became the new Washington head coach, he brought Michael Penix with him after serving as his quarterbacks coach in 2019. Penix will turn 24 years old before his first NFL season and will have six years of college experience under his belt. His best ball has come with DaBoer, and Penix delivered a prolific 2022 season with 4,641 passing yards and 31 touchdowns to eight picks. He could be a logical replacement for Geno Smith if the veteran regresses off a career year in 2022.


Baltimore Ravens

#19: Baltimore Ravens – CB Denzel Burke, Ohio State

Another Ohio State defensive player makes the cut, but this time it’s a cornerback. As a true freshman, Denzel Burke earned third-team All Big Ten honors, but injuries derailed his sophomore campaign. Now healthy, he’s poised for a big junior campaign as the top cornerback in the Buckeye defense. Burke would provide a standout cornerback prospect to round out a top-notch Baltimore secondary featuring Marlon Humphrey, Kyle Hamilton, and Marcus Williams.

Houston Texans

#20: Houston Texans (from Cleveland Browns) – CB Kalen King, Penn State

Kalen King is part of the reason I believe Penn State has sleeper potential to win the Big Ten this season. King led all cornerbacks in the FBS with a 93.3 PFF grade and an 18.3 passer rating allowed in single coverage in 2022. He also tied for third with 15 forced incompletions. With Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre highlighting an ascending Houston secondary, the Texans keep building out that group here.

New Orleans Saints

#21: New Orleans Saints – WR Malik Nabers, LSU

Chris Olave looks destined to become one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, but the rest of their depth chart needs a lot of work, especially with Michael Thomas’s inability to stay on the field. Malik Nabers is elite after the catch as he forced 21 missed tackles last season, leading all SEC wide receivers per PFF. Look for him and Jayden Daniels to put together more fireworks this season.

Miami Dolphins

#22: Miami Dolphins – CB Javon Bullard, Georgia

In a loaded defense full of NFL talent, Javon Bullard was Georgia’s defensive MVP in both of their playoff games this postseason. Bullard played almost exclusively in the slot for the Bulldogs last year, but he filled so many roles from that position, defending the run, providing sticky coverage, and even rushing the passer at times. The Dolphins have an elite secondary with Jalen Ramsey joining Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland – let’s make it even better.

Los Angeles Chargers

#23: Los Angeles Chargers – DE Jack Sawyer, Ohio State

Jack Sawyer was the fifth-ranked prospect in the country in the 2021 recruiting class, and he’s poised for a breakout season as a full-time defensive end in Jim Knowles’s defense. Here, Sawyer joins a former Buckeye defensive end Joey Bosa in Los Angeles. Khalil Mack is now 32 years old and hasn’t quite been the same player in the past couple of years, but Sawyer could learn a lot from him and Bosa.

Detroit Lions

#24: Detroit Lions – QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

It wasn’t always a smooth ride for J.J. McCarthy, a former five-star recruit, in his first year as the starter in Ann Arbor. However, he showed a ton of upside as he led the sixth-ranked scoring offense in the country and threw for 22 touchdowns to just five picks. Now in his second season, he should take his play up a level and has every ability to throw his name in the ring as a first round prospect. Here, he stays in Michigan and joins a Lions team that might be ready to move on from Jared Goff in the near future.

Green Bay Packers

#25: Green Bay Packers (from New York Jets) – WR Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State

This pick was a conditional second-rounder from the Jets in the Aaron Rodgers trade, and if he plays over 65% of snaps this year, it will be a first rounder. We’ll assume that’s the case here. The Packers need to do everything they can to support Jordan Love with more talent, assuming he’s their quarterback of the future, and Emeka Egbuka is coming off an impressive season with 1,151 yards and 10 touchdowns. It’s not difficult to envision him being the next first round wide receiver in the Brian Hartline pipeline.

Dallas Cowboys

#26: Dallas Cowboys – S Calen Bullock, USC

The USC defense was poor in many ways in 2022, but Calen Bullock was an undeniable bright spot in the secondary. An excellent player in coverage, Bullock had more interceptions (5) than touchdowns allowed (4) and was the third-most valuable safety according to PFF’s WAR metric. Cowboys safeties Jayron Kearse and Malik Hooker are set to hit free agency after this season, so drafting Bullock would fill a potential need.

Jacksonville Jaguars

#27: Jacksonville Jaguars – OT Kingsley Suamataia, BYU

Originally a four-star recruit to Oregon, Saumataia returned home to Utah after a redshirt season and shined as a starter at right tackle for BYU. This year, he’ll move to left tackle to replace the recently drafted Blake Freeland. Saumataia has a great frame for the position with plenty of power and flexibility. Jacksonville spent a first-round pick on Anton Harrison this year, but with Jawaan Taylor gone in free agency and Cam Robinson suspended for PEDs, they could be back in the tackle market again in 2024.

Buffalo Bills

#28: Buffalo Bills – DE Zion Tupuola-Fetui, Washington

I expected Zion Tupuola-Fetui to enter the NFL draft this year, but he was part of a crop of players to return to Washington for the upcoming season. ZTF only has one season with 300+ snaps under his belt due to the COVID-shortened 2020 season and an Achilles injury that limited him to five games in 2021. However, his refined hands and ability to convert speed to power make him a highly enticing prospect for a Bills team that need to add a pass rush presence across from Von Miller.

Philadelphia Eagles

#29: Philadelphia Eagles – CB Kamari Lassiter, Georgia

The Eagles seem to have a type – they’ve now drafted five starting members of the historically great 2021 championship Georgia defense. Kamari Lassiter wasn’t a starter on that team – he only played 158 snaps – but he’s coming into his own and will take on a leading role for the Bulldogs this season. Darius Slay and James Bradberry will both be over 30 years old by the 2024 draft, so continuing to add youth to the cornerback room makes a ton of sense for Philadelphia.

San Francisco 49ers

#30: San Francisco 49ers – DT Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois

On an Illinois defense that just produced three NFL draft picks, Jer’Zhan Newton might have been the best of the bunch last year. A 6’2”, 295 lb three-tech, Newton led all Power Five interior defensive linemen with 59 pressures last year per PFF and ranked second in run defense grade. Newton returned for his senior season to boost his draft stock and should terrorize the Big Ten once again. The 49ers continue to add to their stout defensive line with this pick.

Cincinnati Bengals

#31: Cincinnati Bengals – RB Braelon Allen, Wisconsin

There isn’t a Bijan Robinson level running back in next year’s class, but Braelon Allen has first-round caliber talent. Allen was featured on Feldman’s Freaks List due to his rare combination of size, strength, and speed, and he’s set for a massive season in a Luke Fickell offense that should showcase his talent. Joe Mixon is a free agent in 2025, and with his off-field issues and declining production, the Bengals could look to move on.

Kansas City Chiefs

#32: Kansas City Chiefs – WR Rome Odunze, Washington

In an exciting 2024 wide receiver crop, don’t sleep on Rome Odunze. The Washington wideout took full advantage of the prolific DaBoer-Penix offense with 75 catches for 1,145 yards and seven touchdowns. Odunze makes huge plays downfield with his big frame and explosiveness, and he’d be a lot of fun in a Patrick Mahomes offense that will likely be in the wide receiver market next year.

I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.

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