Week 16 RB Start, Sit Fantasy Strategy: Marlon Mack Has a Dream Matchup

If you are in doubt about some players in a tough spot this week, or players that haven’t produced yet this season, you have come to the perfect spot. We dive into a few names to start in borderline matchups, and also talk about players to fade. You can also check out our rankings area to see where players on your team rank and their projections heading into Week 16. Be sure to check out the rest of our weekly fantasy football content.


Start Em

Devonta FreemanDevonta Freeman Vs. Jacksonville

Devonta Freeman is currently RB30 on the season, and has been a disappointment. The offensive line play has been a concern all year long, but this is a matchup Freeman can have a strong game in. The Jaguars rank 31st in DVOA against the run this season, and are allowing the second most fantasy points per game to opposing backs this season. Opposing backs also have rushed for 140 yards per game, averaged 27.2 attempts, and ran for 5.1 yards per carry. Only the Panthers have allowed more rushing touchdowns this season. Backs have also had success in the passing game, with the Jaguars allowing the 9th most receiving yards.

marlon mackMarlon Mack Vs. Carolina

Marlon Mack has ran into some brutal matchups since returning from the broken hand. Week 16 is where he can pick things up again, gas Carolina have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing backs this season. They have allowed 23 rushing touchdowns and over 1,700 rushing yards. Both are the most in the league. Mack doesn’t have any value in the passing game, which makes the ground game matchup more important. With this offensive line and the Panthers allowing 5.3 rushing yards per game, Mack stands a good chance to get over 100 yards here and find the end zone.

Phillip LindsayPhillip Lindsay @ Kansas City

Phillip Lindsay only saw seven touches last week after being around 19 the prior two games. Part of this came down to the Broncos going down early and not having the ball too often. This is a week where I expect the Broncos to take care of business against Detroit. Denver are home favorites and should carry a favorable game script for Lindsay. The matchup is also a plus with the Lions allowing the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season.

james whiteJames White Vs. Buffalo

Out of the New England running backs I want to start this week, it is James White. He has seen 22 targets over the last three weeks, and has racked up three receiving touchdowns and over 100 receiving yards. On the ground he continues to have success, although will only see 6-7 rushing attempts per game. As long as White gets double-digit touches here, he is going to be a solid option. Running backs have seen 40 targets over the past five games against the Bills, and partially it has been a way to move the ball against them, but their secondary is also so good that they take away receiving options.

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Sit Em

lesean mccoyKansas City Chiefs RBs @ Chicago

Since the Chiefs signed Spencer Ware with Damien Williams being out and/or questionable, three backs have gotten work. Darwin Thompson and LeSean McCoy have been under 25 snaps each of the last three weeks. Ware has 31 and 27 over the past two. Thompson has seen 11, 8, and 9 touches. McCoy has seen 8, 12, and 6. Ware has seen 6 and 9. These are not great numbers, and even if one finds the end zone, that isn’t a given for them to find double-digit fantasy points. The Bears had been slipping up against the run, but did get Hicks back in the middle.

Carlos Hyde @ Tampa Bay

Carlos Hyde is coming off his best game in weeks, and while he has rushed for over 1,000 yards this season, this week is not one where I am relying on him. The Buccaneers have allowed 12.2 fantasy points per game to opposing backs, which is the second fewest in the league. They rank first in DVOA against the run, and teams move the ball with such ease through the air, Houston’s production should be with the passing game. Hyde doesn’t offer any PPR upside and is also dealing with an ankle injury.

sony michelSony Michel Vs. Buffalo

Sony Michel saw 20 touches last week, and produced just 11 fantasy points. The fumble didn’t help, but it was the first time in a few weeks where he had a positive game script and could not bring a strong fantasy performance. Michel has been a dud outside of two weeks this season, and dropped just 6.3 fantasy points in the prior meeting against Buffalo. The Bills are allowing just 17.2 fantasy points per game to opposing backs this season, and I am betting on White to pick most of those up.

Devin Singletary @ New England

The volume has been there for Devin Singletary, but going up against a defense that has allowed 12.2 fantasy points per game to running backs, Singletary is a tough start. The Patriots rank 7th in DVOA against the run, and the Bills have the lowest implied total on the slate. Singletary has had a good stretch of games, and plenty of volume, but if he doesn’t find the end zone or rack up a ton of catches, that production won’t be there. Now if you are limited on options, obviously volume is going to trump here, but if you have some other options, I would look that way.

  
Jason Guilbault has been writing and podcasting in the fantasy sports world for over five years. You can find his work at Daily Fantasy Cafe. He is an avid Tottenham fan, and follows the Boston sports teams. When he isn’t diving into stats, he is enjoying the outdoors or down at the local brewery.

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