After a successful West Coast road trip, the Yankees are headed back home to take on a White Sox squad coming off a sweep of the rival Tigers. Let’s take a look at the odds for this inter-divisional clash where my prediction is that the Yankees will win and a -115 wager for o8 runs will hit.
White Sox Vs. Yankees Prediction
It’s funny how divisions work- the Yankees and White Sox have almost inverse records, as the Bronx Bombers are 36-25 and the Southsiders are 26-35, but Chicago (5.5 games back) is actually closer to the top of their division than New York (6 GB). What that means is that while these teams are off to very different starts, they both have a ton to play for at this early stage of the season.
The Yanks have been lifted by a league-best bullpen thus far, with a starting rotation that has sometimes struggled to hold water. Tuesday’s starter Clarke Schmidt has been right at the heart of those struggles, although he might be starting to come around, as he’s put up an ERA of 1.72 across his past 3 starts.
In the bottom half of the innings, Chicago will be tossing former All-Star Lucas Giolito. He’s also had a tough start to the year, but is trending in the wrong direction; 7 earned runs over his past 8.2 innings of work.
A major storyline headed into this game will be the status of Aaron Judge, who I am at this point very comfortable calling the best player on Earth. While in the process of making a remarkable catch, he banged his toe into the ridiculous concrete curb in front of the Dodger Stadium wall; he finished the game but was out of the lineup the next day.
The Yankees claim to not know yet if it’s broken, but over 48 hours later, that makes absolutely no sense whatsoever; an MLB team can get an x-ray taken and read within hours of an injury. I’m fearing the worst for the Yankee captain, and the team will be in serious trouble if he’s out- check out his win/loss splits, they’ve been unable to win games where he doesn’t contribute in a big way.
That being said, with or without Judge this is a home game against a terrible team and a struggling starter. Not to mention, the team picked up a huge Sunday night win without Judge against their old rivals, the LA Dodgers. Schmidt has looked better lately so I think he can get the team over the line on Tuesday, but I could still see him and Giolito both having a tough outing- let’s stick with the over.
White Sox Vs. Yankees Prediction: Yankees ML (-170), o8 runs (-115)
White Sox Vs. Yankees Odds
The Yanks are solid favorites at home with -170 odds while the White Sox are +145 to win. For a run total of 8, the over is -115 and the under is -105
White Sox Vs. Yankees Key Matchups
How will Clarke Schmidt hold up against the lefties in the White Sox lineup? Will Lucas Giolitto be able to get through the first two innings without giving up consistent hits? Check out the key matchups that could decide White Sox vs Yankees.
Clarke Schmidt Vs. Lefty Bats
The White Sox don’t have a particularly left-handed lineup, but this one is still worth looking at as lefties have absolutely crushed Schmidt to the tune of a .972 OPS, compared to a .679 figure for right-handers against the Yankees righty.
2022 Yankee Andrew Benintendi is the most prominent true lefty I expect to be in the lineup, and he’s not off to the best start this season. To make matters a bit better for Schmidt, Benintendi is actually hitting better against lefty arms, although the opposite split exists for his career.
Yoan Moncada and Yasmani Grandal are both switch hitters who will presumably hit from the left side against the right-handed Schmidt. Neither is off to a great start this season, but both are hitting well against righties. For Grandal, this is more of a recent trend, but Moncada has much preferred to face right-handers across his whole career.
It’s definitely a nice break for Schmidt that the Sox don’t have many lefties, none who are hitting well, and the best one in the lineup doesn’t even have much of a platoon split this year- it’s a major reason I have his team hitting the -170 moneyline in my White Sox vs. Yankees Prediction
Lucas Giolito Vs. The First Trip Through The Lineup
In this age of baseball analysis, we’ve learned that a lot of pitchers struggle the third time through the lineup- for Giolito, he’s had a bit of an opposite problem this year. He’s had some rough starts to games, as his second and third worst innings by ERA are the first and second.
The Yanks, meanwhile, have been better offensively in the middle to late innings as they’ve crushed starters going through the lineup for a third time, and bullpens as well- it’ll be interesting to see how these two contrasting trends play out in the Bronx on Tuesday. Of course, we’re talking about the top of the lineup when a pitcher has rough first innings- that looks very different without Judge, who has been by far the best hitter in baseball once again.
Gleyber Torres has settled into the leadoff spot nicely, as he recently put together a 12-game hitting streak, which was snapped against the Dodgers. He hit .327 with 3 homers over that stretch, so it’s nice to see him putting it together a bit. Anthony Rizzo was hitting very well before his recent injury stint, and has struggled to heat up a bit since coming back. Conversely, Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson returned from the IL for the LA series and ripped the ball all weekend, so whether or not they can keep it up will be a key factor going forward.
White Sox Vs. Yankees Team Starting Lineups
White Sox Starting Lineup
SS T. Anderson R
LF A. Benintendi L
CF L. Robert R
RF E. Jimenez R
3B Y. Moncada S
DH J. Burger R
1B A. Vaughn R
C Y. Grandal S
2B E. Andrus R
Yankees Starting Lineup
2B G. Torres R
1B A. Rizzo L
DH G. Stanton R
3B J. Donaldson R
LF W. Calhoun L
RF J. Bauers L
CF I. Kiner-Falefa R
C K. Higashioka R
SS A. Volpe R