Who Should Win 2022 NBA MVP: Nikola Jokic or Joel Embiid?
Although Giannis Antetokounmpo is having an excellent season, the 2022 MVP race is coming down to two players: Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. Jokic was MVP last year, so voter fatigue may be the difference in this race. It is neck and neck with less than 20 games to go in the regular season. The head to head factor has not come into play. The 76ers defeated the Nuggets this year, but Embiid did not play. Jokic produced 30 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists on 10/17 shooting. However, the rest of his team combined for 59 points on 30.5 FG%. The Nuggets and 76ers play on March 14th, so they will get their shot at each other. I think Joel Embiid will end up winning the award, but who actually wins the award does not always coincide with who should have won. Nikola Jokic deserves to win MVP for many reasons. I will go over the stats (both basic and advanced) as well as their impact on winning.
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Basic and Advanced Stats
When considering basic stats, they both have legitimate cases. Embiid is leading the league in scoring at 29.7 PPG while also contributing 11.2 RPG, 4.3 APG, 1.4 BPG and 1.1 SPG. His shooting split is a solid 49/35/82. He clearly impacts the game in a variety of ways while being perhaps the most dominant paint scorer. On the other hand, Jokic is making history this season. He’s the only player in NBA history to average 25+ PPG, 13+ RPG, and 6+ APG in a single season. Jokic is at 25.9 PPG, 13.8 RPG, 8.1 APG, 0.8 BPG, and 1.4 SPG on a 57/36/80 shooting split.
Jokic has the edge in basic stats to me because he is making history. Sure Embiid is leading the league in scoring and averaging a double-double, but that’s been done plenty of times. Embiid’s numbers are also inflated because he gets to the FT line far more than Jokic does. It’s not as though Jokic is against physicality; he just does not get the calls that Embiid constantly gets. For every 10 FGA, Embiid takes 6.14 free throws, while Jokic takes 3.38 free throws. They shoot essentially the same FT%, so Embiid is given about 2.8 more points per game than Jokic. The difference in their scoring is 3.8 PPG, and that is the one of the main reasons Embiid is considered MVP for some. Does Embiid deserve more FT than Jokic? Yes, he probably does. But it is undeniable that Embiid gets calls Jokic does not.
The chart below compares basic stats to their shooting efficiency. Volume stats are important, but efficiency is just as vital. Basketball Reference defines True Shooting Percentage (TS%) as “a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account 2-point field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.”
When comparing Jokic and Embiid to other MVP seasons, the stats favor Jokic. His box score impact and hyper-efficiency is extraordinary. If I had to pick one player from this chart for my team based just on their data points, it would be Jokic. Don’t get me wrong, Embiid is having a tremendous season. However, Jokic is other-worldly and crushes Embiid in combined volume and efficiency. The league average TS% right now is 56.7%. Both players shatter this mark, but Jokic especially does.
Impact on Winning
Besides leading the league in scoring, the other argument made for Embiid is that he contributes to winning more. The 76ers are 40-24 (.625) and 2nd in the Eastern Conference. The Nuggets are 39-26 (.600) and 6th in the West. Technically, Embiid led his team to a better record. Many outside factors come into this though that actually say Jokic was more important to winning. For one, examine the teammate difference between the two. The Nuggets have missed two of their top three players for essentially the entire season. Jamal Murray has not played a single game, and Michael Porter Jr only played 9 games before going down due to injury. Let’s compare the top 4 teammates for each player and see who had more help. I am not counting James Harden for the 76ers, since he has only played 5 games for the 76ers. I am counting Seth Curry for the 76ers though because Embiid had his help for 45 games.
The top four players for the 76ers are Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey, Seth Curry, and Matisse Thybulle. The top four players for the Nuggets are Will Barton, Aaron Gordon, Monte Morris, and Jeff Green. If I were to make three tiers of these players it would be the following.
Tier 1 = Maxey (76ers), Harris (76ers).
Tier 2 = Barton (Nuggets), Gordon (Nuggets), Curry (76ers), Morris (Nuggets).
Tier 3 = Thybulle (76ers), Green (Nuggets).
Embiid has better teammates, which helps explain the small difference in record. Also, the 76ers were 35-23 (.603) before acquiring superstar James Harden. That is almost identical to the current Nuggets record (.600).
The chart below compares Box Plus Minus and Win Shares Per 48 Minutes. According to Basketball Reference, BPM is “a box score estimate of the points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player, translated to an average team.” Win Shares per 48 Minutes is “an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes.” There is no worry about false extrapolation for Win Shares per 48 Minutes since everyone on this list played a large amount of minutes.
Combine the net contributions of creating points and stopping them, and Jokic has more net points per 100 possessions than prime Michael Jordan and LeBron James. His BPM is the highest ever recorded in NBA history by a decent margin. Jokic’s defense has taken a huge step forward this season. He’s been one of the best defenders in the league, which helps his BPM. His win shares per 48 minutes are also significantly above Embiid’s despite the 76ers having more wins. The only players with a higher Win Shares per 48 minutes in a single season are Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Wilt Chamberlain, Michael Jordan, LeBron James, and Stephen Curry (2016). Does Embiid technically have more wins than Jokic? Yes he does. However, the fact that the Nuggets without Murray and Porter Jr are right there with the 76ers speaks volumes.
Jokic has had a larger impact on winning and easily leads in almost every advanced stat. He is leading the league in these advanced stats: Box Plus Minus, Offensive Box Plus Minus, Defensive Box Plus, Win Shares, Offensive Win Shares, Win Shares Per 48 Minutes, Value Over Replacement Player, and PER. He also leads the league in total rebounds and triple-doubles. The only significant stat that Embiid has on Jokic is PPG and team wins, but outside factors (like FT and teammates) say those advantages are not even that impressive.
On-Court Impact
Their impact on and off the court speaks volumes to their ability to affect the game. Below is a chart with ESPN’s Real Plus Minus (RPM), which is a “player’s estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents, and additional factors.” RPM is an all-encompassing stat that attempts to estimate how many points per 100 possessions a player adds to their team when they are on the court. The higher the RPM, the larger the player impact. Net Plus Minus per 100 Possessions measures the team difference when the player is on the court against when they are off the court. A higher number means the team performs better with that player on the court. The chart below is only composed of 2022 All-Stars in order to measure Jokic and Embiid against the top tier talent in the NBA.
The impact Jokic has on the court is absolutely astounding. No player is anywhere close to Jokic in RPM or Net Plus Minus. He not only has the biggest impact when on the court, but his team suffers the most when he is not on it. The chart is spot on because Giannis, Curry, and Tatum are three MVP-candidates with Giannis and Curry being arguably 3rd and 4th in the race.
Overall, Jokic has the edge to me in basic stats, advanced stats, winning, and impact. It is irrelevant that he won the MVP last year; it should not hinder him in any way this season. I recognize that Embiid is having a monster year and would likely win in a different season, but the reality is that Jokic plays in the NBA. He is the rightful MVP and without a doubt deserves the award. Jokic is truly creating NBA history before our eyes; he is doing things on the court that nobody has ever seen.
* Stats from 3/9/22
* Stats from Basketball-Reference, ESPN
2022 NBA MVP Odds
