World Series Game 4: Astros vs Phillies (11/2/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction
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After being delayed a day due to adverse weather conditions, game 3 of the World Series got off to a hot start for the home team, as the Phillies’ bats came alive and the Astros’ simply did not. The Fightin’ Phils blanked their visitors and won 7-0, en route to taking an important 2-1 lead in the series. Let’s take a look at the odds and make some predictions as Philly looks to take a commanding 3-1 lead in game 4.
Astros Vs. Phillies Betting Odds
The Astros are once again set at -1.5 in this one, although the moneyline is essentially even between these two teams. The run total is set at 7.5, an interesting number to watch in what could easily turn into a pitchers’ duel.
Astros Vs. Phillies Picks & Prediction
The Phillies didn’t need a big comeback to take this one; they jumped out to an early lead and never looked back, handing the Astros one of the more lopsided postseason losses they’ve endured in their recent stretch of excellent play in the past few Octobers. This game is a huge one, as while 3-1 comebacks happen in baseball, it’s certainly not a position any team wants to be in. Conversely, 2-2 and guaranteed to head back to Houston would put the Astros in a very comfortable position, from their perspective. The big story in game 3, as it has been so often this postseason, was Philly’s bats, which racked up a whopping five home runs, including some legitimate moonshots from superstar lefties Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
That being said, a strong offensive night from Philadelphia has almost become the expectation at this point in their magical 6-seed run. On the other hand, the dominating pitching performance, kick started by 5 shutout innings from Ranger Suárez, was certainly an eyebrow-raiser against one of the best offenses in all of baseball. This was arguably the more impressive and important aspect of the win in game 3, but it may not be the case in game 4.
Aaron Nola is set to pitch, and he was absolutely harassed by Houston in game 1 of this series, which turned into a miraculous win (no thanks to his efforts). Nola also struggled in his last appearance in the NLCS against the Padres, so after a very good regular season, he finds himself in a small skid heading into perhaps the most important start of his career thus far. The Astros’ bats will also be hoping to bounce back in a big way, after the fearsome top-5 hitters in the lineup (Altuve, Peña, Álvarez, Bregman, Tucker) combined to go 1 for 18 on Tuesday night.
We’ll get to some specifics on Houston’s Cristian Javier in a bit, but I certainly favor his side of the pitching matchup in game 4. It’s a really close call, particularly with the always significant crowd-driven Philly home field advantage, but at essentially even money (-104), I have to go with the value presented by the Astros moneyline in this one. Also due in large part to Javier’s influence, I’m taking the under in this one. Both lineups have had their big moments, but they’ve both also spent a lot of time being relatively quiet; this streakiness does not bode for a strong two-sided offensive effort.
Astros Starting Lineup
2B J. Altuve R
SS J. Pena R
LF Y. Alvarez L
3B A. Bregman R
RF K. Tucker L
1B Y. Gurriel R
DH T. Mancini R
CF C. McCormick R
C M. Maldonado R
Astros Vs. Aaron Nola
One very curious note on Aaron Nola- he’s had significant reverse splits this season, meaning that as a righty, he’s performed much worse against other righties than he has against lefties; this will be interesting to watch against a lineup that is largely right-handed, outside of Alvarez and Tucker. Regarding this postseason, he was absolutely tremendous in scoreless efforts against the Padres and Cardinals before struggling in those last two appearances, so there’s certainly reason to believe he can shine on the biggest stage. Outside of this series, Houston’s starters do not have a ton of experience against Nola, so it will be important to get a lot of batters to the plate and work to figure him out. It may be tough though; he posted a WHIP below 1 this season, so he hasn’t exactly been susceptible to lengthy innings.
Phillies Starting Lineup
LF K. Schwarber L
1B R. Hoskins R
C J. Realmuto R
DH B. Harper L
RF N. Castellanos R
3B A. Bohm R
SS B. Stott L
2B J. Segura R
CF B. Marsh L
Phillies Vs. Cristian Javier
Javier enters this enormous matchup, certainly the biggest so far in his young career, in excellent form. He allowed no runs in his last four starts of the regular season, as well in his lone postseason start so far, against the Yankees in the ALCS. He got knocked around a bit in relief against the Mariners, but that can be forgiven considering the odd circumstances of that appearance. Javier is slightly worse against lefties- matchups against Harper and Schwarber will once again be significant- but this point is almost moot. Lefties were better than righties against the young righthander, but they still struggled mightily; they achieved a sOPS of 68, meaning that their OPS against Javier was 68% of that gained by lefty hitters facing righty batters league-wide this season. If there’s anything the Phillies can do to improve their chances, it’s simply to get Javier out of the game. He’s only pitched 7 innings twice all year, the most recent of which was July 1st. Similarly, he has only cracked 100 pitches twice this year, and none recently, so having smart, long at-bats and raising Javier’s pitch count could be an enormous key for Philly, as it could force Houston to start burning their bullpen.
