Wright State vs. Purdue: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (11/16/21)

Wright State vs. Purdue Betting Odds 

Purdue is the hot, up-and-coming program this season. They’ve returned almost their whole roster from last season and the Big Ten’s largest threat to win the conference.

Meanwhile, Wright State is a Horizon League staple. They’re three-time defending champs of the league’s regular-season title, and last season would’ve been their fifth straight season with 20+ wins if it wasn’t for the COVID-shortened season.

The Raiders lost their top player from last season, but they also return four other starters and 73% of their minutes from last season. Expect them to blow through the Horizon once again.

But can they give Purdue a challenge in this game?

Wright State Raiders Odds 

As mentioned, the Raiders return almost the whole band from last year. But it’s important to recognize how important that is.

Wright State led the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency last season while scoring the league’s most points (81.9) and allowing the fewest (67.4). The Raiders also had the league’s second-best defensive rebounding rate and the best offensive rebounding rate.

So, yeah, losing two-time conference Player of the Year Loudon Love sucks, there are plenty of weapons on the rest of the roster.

Plus, let’s not forget about Scott Nagy, who may be the best mid-major coach in the nation. His goal will be for Wright state to play well-rounded, with a balanced offensive attack and a versatile defense.

Offensively, 6-foot-9 big man Grant Basile will play a huge role. Basile made the all-conference second-team last season, and he’s already taken 38% of the Raiders shots through two games. He dropped 37 in Wright State’s loss to Marshall.

The other big name will be Tanner Holden, a 6-foot-6 forward who can score at all three levels and defend four positions. He’s already scored 44 points over the last two games while adding 12 rebounds and nine assists. Plus, he’s great getting to the line, having now accumulated 35 free-throw attempts over his last three games.

Purdue Boilermakers Odds

Look, Wright State is a mid-major contender, but Purdue is a legitimate Final Four contender.

Purdue was young last season, but the Boilermakers put together an excellent season that saw them heat up as the season went on. Between January 30th and March 12th, the Boilermakers jumped from 29th in adjusted efficiency to 12th.

Sadly, the season culminated in an unlikely upset defeat to North Texas in the first round of the NCAA tournament.

But this roster has a ridiculously high upside.

Things start with all-world center Trevion Williams. Williams led the entire nation in the percentage of team shots taken last season (36.7%), dropping 15.5 points per game in the process. But he also led the team in rebounding, with 9.1 per game, assist rate, and block rate.

Williams is a two-way force and a willing passer, and the whole offense will run through him. But that’s not to take away from the rest of this offense.

Sophomore guard Jaden Ivey is the biggest breakout candidate in the nation this year, and he most recently dropped 27 points on 11-for-13 shooting against Indiana State.

The monstrous 7-foot-4, 295 lbs. center Zach Edey is also likely to have a break-out campaign. He shined in bursts last season, but his consistency should grow with experience. He’s already posted a double-double in both the Boilermakers’ first two games this season (16/10 vs. Bellarmine, 22/10 against Indiana St.).

Finally, keep an eye on Sasha Stefanovic, whose spot-up shooting contributions make-or-break Purdue games. He shot 40% from deep last year while ranking in the 92nd percentile in spot-up points per possession (1.203), and Purdue went 9-1 in games where he scored double-digits.

Prediction and Pick 

My pick: Wright State +18 (-112 at PointsBet)

Like everyone else, I love Purdue. They are such a talented team with an immensely high ceiling.

But 18 points is too many for the Raiders at this point in the season.

The Boilermakers have defeated KenPom’s 191st (Bellarmine) and 186th (Indiana State) best teams. While the Raiders don’t crack the top 100, they’re the stiffest test the Boilermakers will face yet.

Wright State has the experience, talent, and coaching to make this a competitive game. The Raiders almost certainly won’t win, but they’ll keep it within 20.

Tanner joined Lineups to cover everything, but he has vast experience in, and unlimited passion for, Major League Baseball and NCAA Basketball. He’s a McGill University grad and former (Canadian) Division-I alpine ski racer who now spends his time drinking beer and betting home underdogs. Patrick Mahomes is a poor man’s Tom Brady.

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