Wyoming vs. Utah State: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (11/20/21)
Contents
Wyoming vs. Utah State Betting Odds
Utah State is playing some great football.
At 8-2, the Aggies have won five straight games and covered in four straight. They’ve outscored their opponents by 74 just over the past three games.
Meanwhile, Wyoming continues to falter in the Mountain West. After last week’s loss to Boise State, the Cowboys are now 1-5 in conference play and last place in the Mountain division.
However, I’m optimistic for the Cowboys in this matchup, as they’re catching 5.5 points in what should be a defensive battle.
Let’s dive into this matchup.
Wyoming Cowboys Odds
I had high hopes for Wyoming entering this season. Safe to say those have come crashing to the ground.
The offense just never got it together. While Xaxavian Valladay has carried the offense with his 800 yards and 5.1 yards per carry, the passing game has faltered. Wyoming only throws 39.1% of the time, which is 15th lowest in the nation, but it’s still affected the overall offense.
For example, Sean Chambers has only completed 50% of his passes for 5.3 adjusted yards per attempt while throwing more picks (seven) than touchdowns (six). The Cowboys have been relatively successful running the ball, but when they get behind the sticks, Wyoming ranks among the bottom 10 teams in Passing Downs Success Rate. As a result, Wyoming ranks outside the top 100 in first downs.
When the Cowboys manage to move the ball with Valladay, they’re terrible when they need to deliver. Wyoming ranks outside the top 75 in Red Zone efficiency and outside the top 90 in Points Per Opportunity.
Luckily, the defense has kept Wyoming afloat during their terrible offensive stretches. While the Cowboys have only managed 22 points per game (113th in FBS), they still have a positive point differential, allowing only 21.5 points per game (34th in FBS).
Wyoming is particularly good in the secondary, where the Cowboys rank fifth in PFF’s coverage grades and 12th in allowing Big Plays. Wyoming keeps everything in front of them.
And although they can bend at times, the Cowboys don’t break. Wyoming ranks 33rd in defensive third-down conversion rate and 19th in defensive Points Per Opportunity.
Utah State Aggies Odds
Utah State has put together a pretty good season.
They’ve put together a statement win over Washington State and their only losses came to Boise State and #13 BYU. With a five-game win streak, they’re now best in the Mountain West Mountain division.
Opposite of the Cowboys, the Aggies attack you through the air. Utah State owns a top-10 Passing Success Rate and starting quarterback Logan Banner is averaging over 300 yards and two touchdowns per game.
It’s also worth looking at Devin Thompkins, who’s as explosive of a wide receiver as college football has. He’s already accumulated over 1400 receiving yards while averaging almost 19 yards per reception. He’s caught eight touchdown passes for good measure.
He may be small but man can #UtahState WR Deven Thompkins move, and he has some vertical ability too!
Came into the week as the nation’s leading receiver, incredibly explosive and stretches the field vertically.
— Devin Jackson (@RealD_Jackson) November 14, 2021
Defensively, they’re mediocre. The Aggies rank 85th in Defensive Success Rate and 67th in Points Per Game Allowed. But when you drop almost 35 a game, it almost doesn’t matter in the Mountain West.
Prediction and Pick
My pick: Wyoming +5.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Wyoming is going to grind its way to a cover here.
As mentioned, the Aggies attack through the air. But that’s where the Cowboys excel on defense, as their secondary is one of the best in the nation. Banner isn’t going to be able to carve up the Cowboys this week.
So, perhaps the Aggies can fall back on their rush game. Well, that’ll be a tough task considering they rank 119th in Offensive Line Yards and Wyoming ranks inside the top-40 in Defensive Standard Downs Success Rate.
It’s an ugly bet, but this is too many points for this Mountain West battle. I’d also look at playing the under in this spot, which currently sits at 52.5.
