Xavier vs Creighton: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (1/29/22)

Xavier vs Creighton Betting Odds

The Big East’s game of the week will happen at 2:00 p.m. eastern this Saturday when Xavier travels to Omaha to match up with Creighton.

Xavier is a very legit team. However, the Musketeers are coming off back-to-back tough losses that have dropped their conference record to 4-4.

Meanwhile, Creighton is the Big East’s most intriguing team. The Bluejays are young and Greg McDermott has changed their style of play to fit the personnel. Creighton has wins over BYU, Villanova, and Marquette as a result.

But can Creighton pull off another underdog win this week? Or will the hungry Musketeers bounce back?

Xavier Musketeers Odds

Xavier is a lengthy, imposing team.

The point guard stands at 6-foot-5 (Paul Scruggs) and the center stands at 7-foot-0 (Jack Nunge). The Musketeers’ 78.3-inch average height is 22nd nationally. Playing inside the arc against Xavier is like hiking in the Himalayas.

Xavier is top-40 nationally in 2-point defense and 33rd in defensive rebounding rate. The Musketeers also defend well without fouling, ranking seventh in opponent free-throw rate. And considering opponents are hitting those FTs at nearly an 80% clip, Xavier is likely due for some positive regression in that area.

Xavier is similarly interior-oriented on the offensive end. A huge amount of the Musketeer buckets come at the free-throw line, where they’re top-30 in offensive free throw rate.

Put both points together, and you can see Xavier is the premier free-throw shooting team in the Big East:

Image Credit: CBB Analytics

There are chinks in the Musketeer armor, however. If you are a very solid interior defense, the Musketeer offense will go very stale. That’s exactly what happened in the Marquette and Providence losses.

Creighton Bluejays Odds

Creighton’s 1.25 average years of experience makes the Bluejays the 46th-youngest team in the country. This team is very young, but it’s filled with talent and has played older consistently this season.

I love Creighton’s style of play. The Bluejays are uber-efficient on the interior on both ends of the floor. Creighton is 27th nationally in 2-point offense (55.4%) and 10th in 2-point defense (43.1%).

That provides McDermott a very high floor to build on.

Sadly, freshman Point Guard Ryan Nembhard – younger brother of Gonzaga point guard Andrew Nembhard – is still developing. He has a 25% turnover rate and a 90.4 ORtg, and this is how the Bluejays have performed on the perimeter underneath his leadership:

Image Credit: CBB Analytics

Don’t sleep on the Bluejays, however. This team is on the bubble but could very well make the tournament. And they’ll be dangerous in the years to come.

Xavier vs Creighton Prediction and Pick

My pick: Creighton +2 (-118 at Fox Bet)

I can’t help but take Creighton as a home dog in this spot.

If you can disrupt Xavier’s interior game, you can very easily take down the Musketeers. Well, Creighton’s whole team is built around interior domination, and I love them to play up to Xavier in this matchup.

Plus, Xavier has started to really regress after a hot start to the season. After starting the year 11-3 against the spread, he’s now failed to cover in five straight games.

Meanwhile, Creighton is 5-2 against the spread as an underdog this season.

I’ll back the trends one more time in this spot.