Xavier vs Providence: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/23/22)

Xavier vs Providence Betting Odds

Providence has finally hit a small road bump. The Friars’ last three games include two underwhelming overtime wins and a home loss to Villanova. However, the squad is still 22-3 and lined up for a four-seed in the tournament.

Meanwhile, Xavier’s conference season has been a road bump. The Musketeers are a lousy 7-8 in conference play and have dropped four of their last five games.

Xavier will try to revenge the home loss it took to Providence back on Jan. 26. But can Travis Steele’s squad bounce back – or even cover?

Xavier Musketeers Odds

The Musketeers are set up for another disappointing ending underneath coach Steele.

In his four-year tenure, the Musketeers have yet to post a winning record in Big East conference play. Although this is one of his more impressive teams, Steele isn’t a lock for his first NCAA Tournament appearance.

However, thanks to wins over Ohio State, Virginia Tech, and Connecticut, the Musketeers are projected for an eight-seed at the time of this writing.

Xavier is imposing. Paul Scruggs runs the point standing 6-foot-5 while Jack Nunge anchors the interior standing 7-foot-0. Xavier is the best defensive rebounding team in the Big East, but the team is surprisingly pathetic on the offensive boards.

Also surprisingly, Xavier paces the conference in offensive turnover rate. Scruggs and the backcourt have been good at taking care of the ball, but the team can’t really shoot, and nobody plays solid perimeter defense.

Scruggs and the backcourt also run the pick-and-roll to perfection. In fact, it’s really the only effective part of the Musketeer offense, as they rank top-20 nationally in pick-and-roll points per possession.

Ed Cooley’s ball-screen defense isn’t anything special, so perhaps Steele and co. can take advantage of that.

Providence Friars Odds

There’s not a single team in the country due for more regression than Providence.

The Friars currently sit at 22-3, but ShotQuality projects they should be 14-11 based on the quality of shots they take and allow.

The tea has been lucky on the perimeter. The Friars are third in the Big East in 3-point shooting while ranking seventh in 2-point shooting. Defensively, Providence is dead last in defensive turnover rate while also ranking fourth in 3-point defense.

However, if there’s one thing Providence does extremely well, it is getting to the line. The Friars pace the conference with a 37.6% free-throw rate, and the team makes over 75% of those shots as well. Providence has gotten to the line 51 times in the last two games.

Solid free-throw metrics make me feel confident in Providence, as the team has a consistent floor with which to work. However, everything outside that is questionable.

The two-man duo of Jared Bynum and Nate Watson continues to impress. Bynum is top-25 nationally in assist rate while dishing out 4.5 per game, and Watson is scoring 15 points per game with an ORtg over 112.

Xavier vs Providence Prediction and Pick

My pick: Xavier +1.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Providence deserves another loss – at least from a regression standpoint. Meanwhile, Xavier’s tournament hopes are slipping away constantly.

And while Xavier fell short the last time these two matched up, the Musketeers shot just 4-for-18 from 3. I still believe the Musketeers have the necessary matchup advantages to take down Providence.

Specifically, Xavier has big advantages in ball-handling and ball-screen offense. The Friars are not going to pressure Scruggs and co., and Watson should see plenty of efficient opportunities in the pick-and-roll.

Moreover, Xavier will want to play this entire game inside the arc. Given their length and the relative interior metrics, that gives the advantage to the Musketeers.

I believe Xavier hits a few more 3s this time around and pulls out a much-needed road victory.