Yale vs. Purdue Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/18/22)

14th seed Yale (19-11) takes on 3rd seed Purdue (27-6) in the First Round of the East region. Yale won the Ivy League tournament after defeating Penn and Princeton. Against elite competition, Yale has wilted this season. They lost by 36 points to Seton Hall and 22 points to Auburn. KenPom ranks them 147th in Adjusted Efficiency Margin, an uninspiring mark. Yale last made the tournament in 2019, where they lost to 3rd seed LSU in the First Round. 

Purdue defeated numerous elite teams during the season, such as UNC, Villanova, Illinois, Iowa, Ohio St, Michigan, and Michigan St. However, they fell 75-66 to Iowa in the Big 10 Championship game. Purdue is 14th on KenPom in Adjusted Efficiency Margin, which is a very good indication. Purdue was upset last year by 14th seed North Texas in the First Round, and they will want to avenge that disappointment. 

Yale Bulldogs vs. Purdue Boilermakers Betting Odds

Yale Bulldogs Betting Odds

Azar Swain is the star for Yale; he is averaging 19.2 PPG on a 42/34.9/89.1 shooting split. Swain is a lethal spot up shooter who forces opponents to account for him at all times. However, he can create space off the dribble and has an excellent fadeaway shot in his bag. Swain gets to the line 4.6 times a game and shoots a superb 89.1 FT%. Purdue cannot afford to foul him; they must force tough shots and live with the results if Swain drains the contested jumper. Jalen Gabbidon is Yale’s second leading scorer at 11.6 PPG. He excels around the basket, but Gabbidon also can make teams pay on catch and shoot jumpers. He rarely shoots off the dribble and is reliant on ball handlers to create shots for him. 

The Bulldogs had one of the most efficient spot up defenses in the nation and limited guard production. On the other hand, they are vulnerable inside and can be pushed around on the glass. This weakness is a huge red flag because Purdue is one of the best teams at posting up and finishing around the basket. 

Purdue Boilermakers Betting Odds

The Boilermakers are led by potential top-5 NBA draft pick Jaden Ivey and 7’4” Zach Edey. Ivey (17.4 PPG) is a terror in the pick and roll who uses his athleticism to finish through contact. His shooting is solid, but his strength is driving to the basket. Defensively, Ivey is a lockdown defender who can inhibit Swain’s production. Edey is a 7’4” giant who averages 14.6 PPG and 7.8 RPG. Yale doesn’t have the interior size to compete with Edey, so Purdue can bully the Bulldogs in the paint. Between Ivey and Edey, the Boilermakers have multiple two-way threats. 

Sasha Stefanovich contributes 10.7 PPG on a 39 3PT%. Purdue loves to get Stefanovich open from screens and use his shooting talent for their benefit. This matchup is not ideal for Stefanovich, so I think Purdue leans on Edey as the 2nd option. 

Yale Bulldogs vs. Purdue Boilermakers Picks & Prediction

The current spread for this game is -16 Purdue. I like Purdue to cover here and send the Bulldogs packing. Yale has struggled against top competition this season, and Purdue has players of a certain caliber that Yale simply cannot guard. Edey will clean up any misses and dominate the offensive glass, and Ivey will pick apart this Yale defense. Swain must have a monster game, but Ivey’s ferocious guard defense makes that extremely difficult. Purdue won’t underestimate First Round opponents after last year’s debacle, and I expect them to come out firing on all cylinders.

March Madness Bracket