Yale vs. Vermont: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (11/19/21)
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Yale vs. Vermont Betting Odds
An intriguing mid-major battle will take place in Burlington Friday afternoon, as the Catamounts host the Bulldogs.
Both teams are coming off blowout wins, as Yale moved to 3-1 in non-conference play and Vermont moved to 2-1.
As perennial America East conference favorites, the Catamounts are hovering around -7 entering this matchup. The team is experienced, talented, and led by a dominant big man in Ryan Davis.
However, this is not to disrespect Yale. Yale’s won the Ivy League title five times under head coach James Jones, including in the 2019-20 season. The Bulldogs already have a solid win over UMass on their resume, but it’s backed up by a blowout loss to Seton Hall.
So, given these are two relatively strong mid-major squads, who has the edge?
Yale Bulldogs Odds
As mentioned, Yale has become the powerhouse of the Ivy and is the current favorite to win the league again this season. There are a few reasons for that, but chief among them is coach Jones and Azar Swain.
Swain is, for my money, the best player in the conference. He was a first-team all-conference player in 2019-20, averaging 16 points per game, finishing second in the conference in 3-point shooting (38.8%), and setting a Yale single-season record with 93 3-pointers.
1⃣0⃣0⃣1⃣ career points for Azar Swain
Watch live on ESPN3 ➡️ https://t.co/zfeIMwGX81#ThisIsYale pic.twitter.com/qJqgGbpJI1
— Yale Men's Basketball (@YaleMBasketball) November 17, 2021
If you have the best coach and player in the conference, it’s hard not to pick you to take home the title.
However, the Bulldogs also have an array of options at wing. If someone from that group steps up, the Bulldogs will be tough to beat. The 6-foot-5 senior guard Jalen Gabbidon is my best bet, considering he’s currently Yale’s second-highest usage player and has dropped double-digits in all four games.
Yale will play slow on offense and wait for the right shot to open. They’ve had an average length of possession on offense over 18 seconds in nine of the last 11 seasons. So far, Gabbidon has taken advantage of this, but he shouldn’t get as greedy as Swain with shot creation.
Yale’s win over UMass was impressive, but their letdown against Seton Hall was rough. However, they shot just 4-for-30 from 3 in that game. Considering Yale’s a decent shooting team, I wouldn’t expect that kind of performance again.
Vermont Catamounts Odds
I’m really impressed by this Vermont squad.
Their opening night win over Northern Iowa showed me a lot. Without their best player in Davis, the Catamounts showed their depth, talent, and ability to defend.
For example, Isaiah Powell stepped right into Davis’ role and dominated. He posted 17/5/2 with a block and a steal while shooting 3-for-9 from deep. Having a stretch five is important in John Becker’s offense, as Vermont chucks from deep on over 45% of their attempts. It’s now clear the Cats have more than one.
Isaiah Powell three! 52-40 Vermont leads#AEHoops | @UVMmbb pic.twitter.com/JhbYP74L9o
— #AEHoops (@AEHoopsNews) January 3, 2021
Through three games, including UNI and another against Maryland, Vermont ranks 39th in defensive effective field goal percentage (41.6%). Between Ben Shungu and Kam Gibson, the backcourt is long, and their perimeter defense has been excellent as a result. Vermont’s allowing just .81 points per possession in spot-up situations (60th percentile) and opponents are shooting just 25% from 3.
I should comment on Davis, who’s the defending America East Player of the Year. He missed the win over UNI and then struggled against Maryland, likely because of his illness, but bounced back against Worcester Tech. He dropped 28 points and nine rebounds in that one, and hopefully, he starts building momentum.
However, there are so many players who can step up when he has a down night. Other than Powell, Shungu dropped 27 against Maryland and 19 against UNI. But I can go down the list.
This likely has to do with the Catamounts experience. At 2.74 average years of experience, Vermont is the eighth-most experienced team in the country.
Prediction and Pick
My pick: Vermont -7.5 or better
Yale’s been impressive at times, but I lean Vermont in this game. For a few reasons.
Firstly: In early-season basketball, I will always lean towards the team with more minutes continuity and experience. Well, Vermont has the clear advantage in the latter and considering Yale didn’t play last season, this Catamounts team has had more time playing together.
Secondly: Both teams love to chuck 3s, so which team has the advantage there? Neither team has the advantage in shooting or defensive statistics, but Vermont is slightly bigger with Shungu running the point against Azar.
I give the advantage to Vermont in multiple areas, and that’s not even mentioning home-court advantage. I’ll happily play Vermont at anything better than -7.5.
