Saturday night. The Orioles are the betting favorites at -135 on the moneyline, while the Yankees’ odds are at +115. The over/under is set at 9 runs with -105 odds on the over and -115 on the under. The prediction here is that the Yankees win and the under hits.
Yankees vs. Orioles Prediction
Starting pitchers: RHP Clarke Schmidt (6-6, 4.33 ERA) vs. RHP Tyler Wells (7-5, 3.65 ERA)
In a season with fewer games against division opponents than any season in recent memory, the Yankees and Orioles have already faced each other 11 times in 2023. The Orioles hold a narrow 6-5 edge in the head-to-head matchups after Friday night’s win. Tonight will be the second-to-last game between these teams this season.
This should be a relatively even pitching matchup. Each team has seen the opposing starting pitcher three times this season. In those three starts, Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and a 2.8 K/BB ratio in 13-1/3 innings. Orioles starter Tyler Wells is 0-1 with a 5.82 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 4.5 K/BB ratio in 17 innings.
Wells has the better numbers this season, but Schmidt has been better recently. Wells struggled with his command in his last outing against the Rays, yielding 6 free baserunners (4 walks, 2 HBP). He allowed 3 earned runs in 4-1/3 innings that day, just five days after surrendering 5 earned runs and lasting just 2 innings against the Dodgers.
After a rough start in April (6.84 ERA over 6 starts), Schmidt has been steady since then (3.53 ERA over 14 starts). Schmidt also has better advanced metrics than Wells, with a 4.34 FIP compared to Wells’ 5.00 FIP.
With two righties on the mound, we could see a low-scoring game, as both teams have been better against lefties than they have against righties this season. The Yankees have earned a 92 wRC+ against righties compared to 105 against lefties, while the Orioles have posted a 100/111 split. Although the Orioles have better season-long numbers, the Yankees’ offense has been slightly better over the last 30 days.
In such a tight matchup between two familiar teams, the value is on the side getting the better +115 odds. The Orioles are the better team with the better record and they’re at home, but the prediction here is that the Yankees will get it done tonight.
With the hitting splits mentioned above and two of the best bullpens in the league, we are also picking this game to stay under 9 runs.
Yankees vs. Orioles Prediction: Yankees moneyline (+115), under 9 runs (-115)
Note: all metrics above taken before Friday’s games
Yankees vs. Orioles Odds
The Orioles are the betting favorites at -135 on the moneyline, while the Yankees’ moneyline odds are at +115.
The Orioles are laying -1.5 runs on the spread at +150 odds, while the Yankees are getting +1.5 at -175 odds.
The total in this game is set at 9 runs, with -105 odds on the over and -115 odds on the under.
Yankees vs. Orioles Key Matchups
Here are the key matchups that could decide Yankees vs. Orioles.
Tyler Wells vs. Yankees
Wells seems to be the bigger wildcard in the pitching matchup than Schmidt. He has shown better stuff at certain points this season, but has been erratic recently. If those recent struggles continue, then the Yankees’ moneyline pick in our Yankees vs. Orioles prediction will be looking good.
While the Yankees have struggled against right-handed pitching for most of the season, they have started to approach league average over the last two weeks when they posted a 95 wRC+. In the 6 weeks prior, that mark was a paltry 74.
That makes the matchup between Wells and the Yankees’ righty-heavy lineup all the more important to the outcome of tonight’s game.
The strength of the bullpens in this game is a big reason for picking the under in our Yankees vs. Orioles prediction.
The Yankees’ relief staff leads the majors in ERA at 3.20 and the Orioles are not far behind at 3.73 (6th). Baltimore has the better advanced metrics with a league-leading 3.54 FIP and 3.86 xFIP (2nd), but the Yankees are still top 10 in those categories with a 3.98 FIP (8th) and 4.11 xFIP (9th).
It’s worth noting that the Yankees’ pen has started to show some cracks recently. They are just 25th in FIP (5.11) over the last month.
Yankees vs. Orioles Starting Lineups (Projected)
Yankees Starting Lineup
RF Jake Bauers (L)
2B Gleyber Torres (R)
1B Anthony Rizzo (L)
DH Giancarlo Stanton (R)
3B DJ LeMahieu (R)
CF Harrison Bader (R)
LF Billy McKinney (L)
SS Anthony Volpe (R)
C Kyle Higashioka (R)
Orioles Starting Lineup
SS Gunnar Henderson (L)
C Adley Rutschman (S)
RF Anthony Santander (S)
1B Ryan O’Hearn (L)
DH Ryan Mountcastle (R)
2B Adam Frazier (L)
LF Austin Hays (R)
CF Colton Cowser (L)
3B Ramon Urias (R)