Yankees vs. Red Sox: Predictions, Odds, Best Bets, Starting Lineups (6/17/23)

The Yankees and Red Sox meet on Saturday for the second game of a three-game series, and it’s fair to say the Yankees are hoping for a more competitive game after getting trounced on Friday night. Clarke Schmidt will be on the mound for New York, with another young starter going for the Red Sox in Brayan Bello. The Red Sox are slight home favorites at -130 on the moneyline.

Let’s make predictions for Saturday’s matchup and take a look at why

Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction

The Yankees aren’t as good of a team without Aaron Judge, to say the least, but they’re still difficult to get rid of.

The Red Sox blew them out on Friday night, and that’s unlikely to happen on back-to-back days. New York has only lost back-to-back games three times since the start of May, and the team’s late-inning success thanks to a pretty strong bullpen advantage is a major reason.

There will be serious pressure on Schmidt to deliver, and the good news for the Yankees is he’s pitched much better of late. The same can be said for Bello, who’s taken a big step forward from last season. The test for Bello will be some of the Yankees’ power hitters, including Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres.

If Schmidt is able to get by and it comes down to the bullpens, this is certainly a winnable game for the Yankees, who have fought back so many times after losses this season and that they feel like the better value pick here at +110.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction: Yankees +110

Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds

The Red Sox are favored at home, entering at -130 on the moneyline. The over/under is 9 runs.

Oddsmakers are putting more faith in the Red Sox, and that’s the kind of difference Judge’s absence makes. It’s been tough to squash the Yankees, however, particularly in the late innings with how solid their bullpen has been. Will this game come down to which young starter extends his recent hot streak?

Yankees vs. Red Sox Key Matchups

Here are the key matchups that could decide Yankees vs. Red Sox.

Justin Turner vs. Clarke Schmidt

Believe it or not, the most dangerous hitter in the Red Sox’ lineup right now is veteran Justin Turner. Turner is 13-for-28 over his last seven games with 3 HR and 10 RBI. He had his way with Yankees pitching on Friday night, homering twice with a grand slam that broke the game open. Can he take advantage of Schmidt?

Schmidt has pitched much better of late after a slow start, but his FIP over his last four starts is nearly double his ERA and indicates more regression could be on the way. A veteran like Turner, who is clearly in the zone right now, could represent a threat to an inexperienced starter the same way he was a threat to Yankees pitching on Friday.

Yankees’ Power vs. Brayan Bello

Like Schmidt, Bello has made real strides recently. The only difference is Bello’s success has been more sustained, and naturally, has a better chance to be more sustainable going forward.

Bello went seven innings against the Yankees last week and has a sub-3 ERA over his last six starts. Much like Schmidt, though, his FIP is a bit elevated compared to his ERA. It’ll be interesting to see whether Bello is able to limit home runs with Aaron Judge still out of the lineup for the Yankees. Bello only allowed a home run in one of his last five starts, a major improvement after he allowed a homer in each of his first five.

The Yankees still have some power without Judge, especially if Giancarlo Stanton is getting healthier. If Bello can keep the ball in the ballpark, the Red Sox will be set up well.

Yankees vs. Reds Starting Lineups

Yankees Starting Lineup

RF Jake Bauers L
DH Giancarlo Stanton R
2B Gleyber Torres R
1B Anthony Rizzo L
3B DJ LeMahieu R
CF Isiah Kiner-Falefa R
LF Billy McKinney L
C Jose Trevino R
SS Anthony Volpe R

Red Sox Starting Lineup

RF Alex Verdugo L
1B Justin Turner R
3B Rafael Devers L
CF Adam Duvall R
LF Masataka Yoshida L
2B Christian Arroyo R
DH Triston Casas L
C Connor Wong R
SS Pablo Reyes R