The MLB All-Star break has come and gone and the Yankees and Rockies resume their seasons Friday night in Colorado. The Yankees are the betting favorites at -205 on the moneyline, while the Rockies’ odds are at +175. The over/under is at 11 runs with -120 odds on the over and +100 on the under. The prediction here is that the Yankees win and the under hits.
Yankees vs. Rockies Prediction
Starting pitchers: LHP Carlos Rodón (0-1, 3.38 ERA) vs. LHP Austin Gomber (7-7, 6.40 ERA)
Carlos Rodón finally appeared in a Yankees uniform just before the All-Star break, and he looked good against the Cubs despite taking the loss. He threw 69 pitches and completed 5-1/3 innings while allowing 2 earned runs on 4 hits and 2 walks.
The Yankees’ prized offseason acquisition went on the IL during spring training with a left elbow strain and back tightness. Now that he’s back, he should only get stronger as he rounds into form.
In his second start in the Yankee pinstripes, Rodón gets an even better matchup than the Cubs as he faces a Rockies lineup that is last in the league with a 79 wRC+ this season. They are even worse against lefties like Rodón, having posted just a 64 wRC+ against southpaws.
Expect Yankees manager Aaron Boone to give Rodón a slightly longer leash tonight. He could throw closer to 85 pitches which should allow him to get through six innings if he pitches with the same efficiency he displayed in his first start.
On the other side of this matchup, the Yankees’ lineup gets a good matchup against struggling Rockies starter Austin Gomber. His 6.40 ERA in 18 starts this season is the second-highest among pitchers with at least 75 innings pitched. He also has the highest FIP with that qualifier and the 11th highest xFIP.
The Yankees have struggled at the plate over the last month, thanks largely to the absence of 2022 AL MVP Aaron Judge, who has been on the IL since June 3. With Judge out, they have posted an 85 wRC+ (27th). They had a mark of 102 before Judge went down.
Still, the Yankees have enough firepower at the plate to take advantage of Gomber, and they have a significant advantage in the bullpen as well. That makes the best bet in this game the Yankees moneyline, even at its relatively short odds.
I am also backing the under in this matchup, as I expect Rodon and the Yankees bullpen to shut down Colorado, even in a hitter-friendly park. While Gomber has been dreadful this season, he has pitched at least 5 innings and allowed no more than 2 runs in his last three starts. As long as he’s not a disaster, the under on 11 runs has some good value with odds at even money.
Yankees vs. Rockies Prediction: Yankees moneyline (-205), under 11 runs (+100)
Yankees vs. Rockies Odds
The Yankees opened with -195 moneyline odds and that lined had moved to -205 as of this writing. The Rockies’ moneyline odds opened at +165 and moved to +175.
The Yankees are laying -1.5 on the spread at -135 odds, while the Rockies are getting +1.5 at +115.
The over/under opened at 10.5 and had creeped up to 11 as of this writing. You can get the over at -120 odds and the under at +100.
Yankees vs. Rockies Key Matchups
Here are the key matchups that could decide Yankees vs. Rockies.
Austin Gomber vs. (almost) all righties
A big reason the Yankees should be glad to see Gomber on the mound is that he’s left-handed. Since June 4 (when Judge went on the IL) the Bronx Bombers have just a 73 wRC+ against righties (30th) but they have posted a whopping 137 wRC+ against lefties (2nd).
The Yankees’ lineup is dominated by right-handed hitters. Among their everyday players, only Anthony Rizzo and Jake Bauers hit from the left side, and Bauers is currently on the IL with a shoulder injury.
This matchup is the main reason I picked the Yankees in my Yankees vs. Rockies prediction.
Carlos Rodón vs. Rockies
Given my expectation that the Yankees should find some success against Gomber, my pick of under 11 runs hinges largely on Rodón’s ability to shut down the Rockies’ weak lineup.
Rodón is coming off back-to-back seasons in which he made the All-Star team and finished in the top six in Cy Young voting. Over those two seasons he made 55 starts and had a 2.67 ERA and 0.998 WHIP.
If he can get anywhere close to the form he has shown over that span, he should have no problem against Colorado. If that happens, then the under will be looking very good, even if the Yankees put up some runs.
Yankees vs. Rockies Starting Lineups (Projected)
Yankees Starting Lineup
2B Gleyber Torres (R)
RF Giancarlo Stanton (R)
1B Anthony Rizzo (L)
CF Harrison Bader (R)
DH Josh Donaldson (R)
LF Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)
3B DJ LeMahieu (R)
SS Anthony Volpe (R)
C Jose Trevino (R)
Rockies Starting Lineup
DH Jurickson Profar (S)
RF Kris Bryant (R)
3B Ryan McMahon (L)
C Elias Diaz (R)
1B C.J. Cron (R)
SS Ezequiel Tovar (R)
LF Randal Grichuk (R)
2B Alan Trejo (R)
CF Brenton Doyle (R)