For the Yankees, a team projected by many to once again contend, the playoffs are beginning to look like a pipe dream. For the White Sox, that has been the case for months already. Both organizations are showing incredible signs of dysfunction, and are in desperate need of some positive momentum heading into next season, and this series could be a battleground for just that. Let’s take a look at the odds for this AL showdown, where the prediction is a Yankees win and the over to hit at -108 odds for a total of 9 runs.
Yankees vs. White Sox Prediction
It’s getting ugly for both of these teams. Over the past few days and weeks, the Yankees have seen Domingo German head to rehab after an alcohol related incident on team property and lost Anthony Rizzo after about two months of under the radar concussion symptoms. Struggling lefty starter Carlos Rodón might also be out with another injury, and there’s even questions about Giancarlo Stanton’s health after he was thrown out at the plate while running impossibly slowly.
On the field, they’ve been inexplicably leaving astronomical runners on base, leading to some deeply frustrating losses. It also doesn’t help that even Gerrit Cole, the team’s most consistent bright spot this year, couldn’t deliver game 1 of this series against a Chicago team that is having issues of its own. Tim Anderson’s fight with José Ramírez, while surely memorable, is just one showcase of a team whose culture is absolutely collapsing. Players who left the team at the trade deadline, including now-Yankee Kenyan Middleton, have bashed the team for having “no rules,” stating that players routinely miss meetings and even nap in the bullpen during games.
Suffice it to say that this season has not gone as planned for either side. It’s not just the poor results in terms of wins and losses, it’s the state of the organization. That being said, wins could absolutely help to turn things around, so the Sox will be eager to win the series on Tuesday, while the Yankees will hope to snap a run in which they’ve won 2 series out of their past 11.
Chicago’s starting pitcher will be Touki Toussaint, who hasn’t been too consistent but has definitely had effective outings for the Southsiders, in what has been easily the best stretch of his career thus far. He’s worked out of a hybrid starter/long reliever role, so the Chicago pen could definitely get involved before too long in this one. He’s facing Clarke Schmidt, who started the year awfully but has not allowed more than 3 runs in any start out of his past 12, a streak dating back to May 14.
While it’s definitely a rough look to lose the Cole bumpday, the Yankees are rightful favorites here. The results have not been great, but the offense is playing better, even with Aaron Judge in something of a mini-slump; eventually, some of the stranded baserunners will get driven in, and that could certainly happen against the Sox, who are 24th in team ERA. On a very related note, the Yankees bullpen has faltered a bit lately as well, while I’m not too confident in either Toussaint or Schmidt; let’s take the over here.
Yankees vs. White Sox Prediction: Yankees ML (-148), o9 runs (-108)
Yankees vs. White Sox Odds
The Yankees are road favorites with -162 odds, compared to +136 for the Sox. For a total of 9 runs, the over is -108 and the under is -112.
Yankees vs. White Sox Key Matchups
Touki Toussaint vs. Walk Artists
Toussaint’s walk rate is actually first percentile as per statcast, meaning that pretty much nobody walks more batters than he does. His chase rate is also just about nonexistent, and his strikeout rate is below average, so while he does limit hard contact, he definitely needs to be wary of hitters who can work the count and get a free pass.
The Yankees’ premier walk threat, on-base threat, and really threat in general is of course Aaron Judge. The team captain leads the Bronx Bombers in walks with 45 despite playing just 59 games, as he’s on a pace that would surpass even what he did last year; there’s just little reason to pitch to him right now with the state of the lineup.
Up next on the team walks list is Gleyber Torres, who has really been one of the few season-long contributors, and then rookie shortstop Anthony Volpe. DJ LeMahieu has also worked about as many walks as Volpe, but pure on-base ability is not this team’s forte.
Clarke Schmidt vs. Base Hit Hitters
Schmidt has limited home runs at a normal rate, and reduced his walk rate, but his WHIP and most other metrics have still jumped due to an increased batting average against. He’s a bit better at preventing barrels than hard hits, which checks out for a guy who can get beaten with line-drive singles just as easily as big swings.
Luckily for Schmidt, the White Sox are in the bottom third of the league when it comes to batting average. The team has three guys hovering around the .270 mark, led by Eloy Jiménez, who is hitting a very respectable .279. Noted contact bat and 2022 Yankee Andrew Benintendi is the official team batting average leader (as Jiménez has missed a good amount of time) with a mark of .276, followed by Luis Robert at .270 even.
After that trio, things drop off a good bit, as Andrew Vaughn is the next full-time player on the list, with a mark of just .253. Schmidt is far from a flawless pitcher, but my belief that he can do enough to keep his team alive against this group is a major reason why I have over 9 runs at -108 odds in my Yankees vs. White Sox prediction.
Yankees vs. White Sox Starting Lineups
Yankees Starting Lineup
1B J. Bauers L
DH A. Judge R
2B G. Torres R
DH G. Stanton R
LF B. McKinney L
3B D. LeMahieu R
CF H. Bader R
SS A. Volpe R
C K. Higashioka R
White Sox Starting Lineup
SS T. Anderson R
LF A. Benintendi L
CF L. Robert R
DH E. Jimenez R
3B Y. Moncada S
1B A. Vaughn R
C Y. Grandal S
RF G. Sheets L
2B E. Andrus R