Election Day is in one month, and the stakes are heating up. The 2020 election will be a tight race and will come down to the swings states in the U.S. Election odds are unavailable in the U.S., as it is illegal to vote on elections. However, offshore books do have odds. While we don’t recommend using any offshore books as you will encounter legal issues, we are displaying odds in this article for informational purposes only.
As for the events leading up to the election, one debate is in the books with two more expected to go down before the important day. However, it was recently announced that President Donald Trump tested positive for COVID-19, which has shifted the odds in this election.
As of writing this, Democratic nominee Joe Biden is currently -180 to win the election, and President Trump is +150.
The news of Trump’s health is the reason why the odds are spiking in Biden’s favor. Since COVID-19 broke out in the U.S., Biden and Trump, have been nearly 50/50 odds since the latest events. Stories like this will shift the odds, but similar to sports, is there a market overreaction?
2020 U.S. Election Odds
*Odds courtesy of Bovada
Democratic nominee Joe Biden is currently -180 to win November’s election, with current President, Donald Trump, falling to +150. Bovada also has some longshot odds on Mike Pence (+3000), Kamala Harris (+5000), and Hillary Clinton (+10000).
What is interesting is Mike Pence sitting at +3000. Last week, Pence was +50000 before the Trump news. In a worst-case scenario that Trump was not able to recover from the coronavirus, would Mike Pence become the Republican nominee? As unlikely as this is, Pence could become the Republican nominee in an unprecedented circumstance.
The main focus is still on Biden and Trump, however. Last week, Biden was slightly favored with -120 odds, and Trump sat at +100. The odds have completely shifted since the news of Trump’s positive COVID test broke.
Overall, this comes down to how quickly Trump can recover. The United States is a month away from the election, and if Trump is still battling, COVID symptoms are is still recovering from COVID, then that is going to hurt his election odds.
Most likely, there will not be another debate before the election, or at least it will need to be done remotely. If Trump can recover from COVID quickly, then he will be able to rally around him beating the virus. However, that remains to be seen.
If there is a time to buy Donny T, now is the time. In the past 24 hours, Trump announced that he tested positive for coronavirus. Since then, the odds shifted to make Biden a heavy favorite, creating value on Trump at +150.
If Trump recovers from COVID, it will only help his odds to be re-elected. Trump’s persona will thrive off the comeback fight, and his backers will eat it all up. This is one of the most important elections in U.S. history, or so they say.
This election will practically be a coin flip on Election day, so taking the underdog at +150 seems like a no brainer. We bet numbers, not teams, or elected officials in this matter.