2021-22 NFL win totals have now been released as the schedule is out, and rosters are set after a wild free agency and draft. If you are wondering why some of these win totals look about a half win or win too high, remember that there will be 18 weeks this season and 17 games played per team. Updates will be made throughout the offseason and weekly once the season begins.
2021-22 NFL Team Win Totals
What Are Win Totals?
For those who are new to the sports betting world, win totals are put out over the offseason as a number to bet the over or the under on for wins. This number is a pretty good indicator of how oddsmakers expect teams to do this season. When sorting through, you can easily see who is viewed as the top teams in the league and then the worst. You can find win totals on a number of sportsbooks, and some will slightly vary, so finding value is important. Also, remember that teams will play 17 games this year.
Will Win Totals & Odds Change?
Given win totals are generally posted around when the free agency, draft, and schedule release are wrapped up, there is a long period before preseason and games begin. Odds will generally stay around the same throughout this period and then begin to change once the season begins. With every game that takes place, it is a clearer indication of their ability to hit or not hit the win total.
An overall win total will change if a major injury occurs over the offseason or if a major trade takes place. For example, Green Bay’s win total is not up, but Denver is a popular trade destination, and their win total would certainly rise, or odds would greatly increase to reflect that.
There are various ways to project wins, as some have systems to run out each game while others go game by game for the schedule and calculate that way. The schedule is important as it gives you a clear-cut look at how many wins a team could get. Of course, there are some things that are out of your control, like injuries occurring in the middle of the season. It can work both ways, but it is unfortunate and the risk with futures.
To preface these picks, I am looking as of May and will be updated based on any major information or odds changes over the next few months. The Washington Football Team comes in with a win total of 8 on DraftKings, which sit at -141 odds to hit the over. It is within the top-five best odds to hit the over. This is a team that won seven games last year with a rotating quarterback group that was not ideal.
They also lost five games by seven points or less and three games by three points or less. With Ryan Fitzpatrick under center for a year and a much-improved receiving core, the offense won’t be a letdown like they were at times last season.
The defense continues to get better and better and is going to be a real problem for opposing offenses. They are the complete team in the NFC East and should pick up 4-5 wins within the division alone. They do have a tougher out-of-division schedule, but games against Carolina, Denver, Atlanta, and Las Vegas are very winnable. They also get a bulk of their tougher games at home.
Last year was not a fluke season for the Cleveland Browns. They are battling with the Ravens for the AFC North as Pittsburgh’s fall off in the second half of last year was fairly predictable. I don’t see them being a huge threat with a weaker defense and Ben Roethlisberger aging another year. Factor in that they didn’t improve their offensive line all that much.
They are a notch below the Browns. Cleveland has easier games on the schedule like Houston, Chicago, Detroit, and Las Vegas. While Cincinnati will be tougher, I expect them to sweep the series.
They have toss-up games against Denver, New England, Minnesota, and the Chargers, but I expect a few wins among this group. They are well-coached and have improved the roster greatly over the offseason, especially within the secondary, which hurt them last year. This team is here to stay and will be a real threat in the AFC.
Honorable Mentions: Jaguars Over 6.5 (+110), Bills Over 11 (-106), Chargers Over 9 (-110)
New Orleans comes in with a win total of nine this season. They still have talented pieces on offense, but this rides on Jameis Winston showing up and playing well. The defense was up and down last season, and over the offseason, they didn’t make any glaring moves that will move the needle for me here. They start three of their first five games on the road and have an early bye week.
The schedule isn’t too bad, but a lot of their opponents you might have considered weaker last season are going to be far more respectable this year. I can’t chalk up as many wins against these teams in the past. The Saints went 6-0 in the division last season, and I don’t see that repeating.
The NFC West is loaded with four competitive teams, and they are expected to churn out two double-digit win teams based on the win totals. The 49ers and Rams are those two teams. Seattle is the team I am looking at who is +110 to hit the under. Seattle generally churns out good seasons even when the odds are stacked against them, and they hardly made major moves in the offseason.
They went 8-3 in one-score games last season and beat teams they were supposed to. Seattle will face a pretty rocky schedule this year, as they rank inside the bottom ten for the strength of schedule. There are going to be a lot of close games, but I don’t see them having the same sort of luck in one-score games.
Honorable Mentions: Patriots Under 9 (+107), Colts Under 10 (-139), Raiders Under 7 (-106)