2021 Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview: Odds, Lines, & Predictions

2021 Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview

One can’t help but think what last year might have looked like with a prime Andrew Luck under center with elite pass protection and the best defense that the Colts have had in years. Unfortunately, it makes no difference either way. The Colts almost bounced the Buffalo Bills in the opening round of the playoffs but came up just short.

There is hope for the future in Indianapolis, though, as it traded for former Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz. Wentz will have significantly more weapons at his disposal and time in the pocket to make reads. This should hopefully mitigate the pressure on Wentz, which can help him know when to throw the ball away versus holding on to it or forcing a pass to an unopen receiver.

2020 Indianapolis Colts Team Stats

  • Points For: 451
  • Points Against: 362
  • Passing Yards Per Game: 256.6
  • Rushing Yards Per Game: 127.0
  • Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 245.1
  • Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 90.8

Key Offseason Transactions

It has been a busy off-season for the Indianapolis Colts. Philip Rivers and Anthony Castonzo both decided to retire, each for different reasons. The Colts expected Rivers to move on but were undoubtedly surprised by Castonzo’s retirement.

The 2021 NFL Draft came next, and many were expecting the Colts to go for a left tackle with either their first or second pick. Both picks came and went without snagging a left tackle. Instead, Indianapolis opted to pick Kwity Paye, an edge with an exceptionally high ceiling, to add to its increasingly talented defense. Then, the Colts secured left tackle Eric Fisher in free agency, and everything made sense again for fans in Indianapolis.

The quarterback position was another slot that the Colts had to secure. From the beginning, it was clear that Wentz was going to be their guy, primarily because of his already-existing connection with head coach Frank Reich, from their days together in Philadelphia. Reich was the offensive coordinator for the Eagles team that won the Super Bowl, and that also happened to be the year that Wentz was an MVP front-runner before he went down with a season-ending knee injury.

Altogether, the Colts did what they needed to do in the off-season, and they have set themselves up well for the upcoming year. The AFC South will be a toss-up between the Tennessee Titans and the Colts, and therefore, every single game will be vital.

  • Retired: Anthony Castonzo
  • Drafted: Kwity Paye
  • Signed: Eric Fisher
  • Traded For: Carson Wentz

2020 Indianapolis Colts Betting Stats

Record: 11-6
MOV: 5.4
ATS: 9-8
ATS +/-: +1.4
Over/Under: 10-7
Total +/-:  +2.2

2021 Indianapolis Colts Betting Outlook

The Colts have a bright future ahead for them, and while they might not be legitimate Super Bowl contenders in 2021, they aren’t as far off as some may think. Indianapolis has one of the best O-lines in the NFL, led by Quenton Nelson, Ryan Glowinski, Braden Smith, Ryan Kelly, and new free-agent addition, Eric Fisher. While losing Anthony Castonzo to retirement does hurt, the Colts secured another great blind-side tackle in Fisher.

Indianapolis has not had this great of a running game in years. It has Marlon Mack, Jonathan Taylor, and Nyheim Hines, who all have big-play capabilities. While Taylor can’t pass-catch too well, Hines and Mack specialize in that. Altogether, the Colts have one of the most well-rounded and deep backfields in the NFL.

Defensively, the Colts have a top ten unit led by stars Darius Leonard and DeForest Buckner. Additionally, Indianapolis emphasized beefing up its EDGE positions by drafting an EDGE with each of its first two picks in the draft. One of those picks was Kwity Paye, the athletic EDGE who has limitless upside.

Ultimately, the level of success that the Colts have this year will be determined by quarterback Carson Wentz, whom they acquired during this off-season via trade. If he proves to be a glove-tight fit, then the potential for this Colts team is very high.

Indianapolis Colts Super Bowl Odds

As much as I would like to be blindly optimistic about the Colts’ chances of winning a Super Bowl this year, I simply can’t do it. While I am incredibly bullish on the Colts over the next five years, they just do not have the firepower to pull it off. Indy’s biggest weakness is its receiving core, and since it didn’t emphasize that enough in free agency, it will likely struggle a bit in the passing game. I don’t see the merit in putting a Super Bowl future bet down on the Colts this year.

Indianapolis Colts Playoff Odds

This future is pretty straightforward to me; the Colts will make the playoffs. We saw a glimpse of what they could be last year, and they even took the Buffalo Bills down to the wire in the playoffs. The Colts emphasized finding a replacement for Philip Rivers and juicing up their defensive line but seriously lacked securing additional receiving weapons. For these reasons, the Colts are absolutely a playoff team; however, they are not quite strong enough to be a Super Bowl contender. If they don’t win the AFC South, they will secure a Wild Card spot at the bare minimum.

Win Total Odds

The Colts have a very tough non-divisional schedule this year. Luckily, they face the Texans and the Jaguars twice, which should result in four wins. Additionally, it’s likely the Colts will split with the Tennessee Titans this year.

Indianapolis should also handle the Arizona Cardinals, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Jets, New England Patriots, and San Francisco 49ers. The games that will be very tough for the Colts will be against the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Buffalo Bills, and Baltimore Ravens.

Altogether, I have the Colts going 11-6 or 12-5 this year and having a lot of success. Even if they cannot secure 11 wins, they would still generate a push at ten wins. I suggest the over on the Colts here.

Indianapolis Colts Player Future Odds

Kwity Paye has one of the highest ceilings for a defensive player in the 2021 draft. Paye is an immediate starter for the Colts, whose sheer strength and freakish athleticism made him one of the best EDGES in college football. Paye is an excellent choice for Defensive Rookie of the Year for a multitude of reasons. The first is that he is arguably the most physically gifted defensive player in the draft. Additionally, Paye’s story and challenging childhood have helped fuel his drive to become the best version of himself. He also has a seasoned D-Line coach in Brian Baker, who can help sharpen his fundamentals. There’s no doubt that Paye has the drive and fire, and the Colts will undoubtedly provide him with the necessary tools to be successful; therefore, Paye has an excellent chance at being a DROY in 2021-22.

Conclusion

Indianapolis should have a successful year with 11 or 12 wins and a playoff birth. While the Colts’ likelihood of winning the Super Bowl is minimal considering some of the powerhouse teams that exist this year, they will still have some great moments. Kwity Paye has a strong chance of being the Defensive Rookie of the Year as well. I anticipate Carson Wentz struggling a bit at first but finding comfort behind the O-Line later in the season.

A sports junkie and former college basketball player that searches more than Lewis and Clark for deficient lines. Adept in statistics, sports economics, and all things betting.

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