2021 New York Jets Betting Preview
The Jets were putrid yet again in 2020, but they found a way to win two games down the stretch and play their way out of the first overall pick. Instead, they picked at #2 and selected Zach Wilson out of BYU. The Jets brought in a brand new coaching staff headed by new head coach Robert Saleh along with Wilson.
Wilson will be throwing the ball to the likes of veterans Jamison Crowder and Corey Davis, as well as second-year Denzel Mims and rookie Elijah Moore. Rookie Michael Carter joins Tevin Coleman and others in the backfield. The offensive line should also continue to improve as first-round offensive guard Alijah Vera-Tucker joins 2020 first-round offensive tackle Mekhi Becton.
The Jets’ defense still needs some improvement, but Saleh’s background is on that side of the ball, and he has some talent to work with here. Quinnen Williams is one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL and is poised for a monstrous third-year ascension. Some high-level talent joins him in safety Marcus Maye and linebacker C.J. Mosley.
Overall, this Jets team has a ton of young talent that should give its fans tons of excitement for the future. Will it all come together in 2021?
2020 New York Jets Team Stats
Points For: 243 (15.2 per game), 32nd of 32
Points Against: 457 (28.6 per game), 26th of 32
Passing Yards Per Game: 174.75
Rushing Yards Per Game: 105.2
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 275.5
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 112.0
Key Offseason Transactions
The Jets had an impressive amount of draft capital built up for this year, and they made the most of it to remake their offensive nucleus. Quarterback Zach Wilson comes in with a ton of hype, and his incredible arm strength and ability to make off-platform throws are very enticing. He’s joined by speedy receiver Elijah Moore and versatile lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker on the offense and running back Michael Carter.
New York also made the most of their free agency moves as they brought in some key contributors. Corey Davis is coming off the best season of his career as he had 65 catches for 984 yards and 5 touchdowns in 14 games in 2020. Tevin Coleman should see significant touches out of the backfield while wide receiver Keelan Cole and tight end Tyler Kroft play a role in the passing game. Morgan Moses, a late addition, is also the likely starting right tackle.
The Jets also used free agency to bring in several starters on the defensive side of the ball. Lamarcus Joyner will start at safety across from Marcus Maye, and Jarrad Davis has considerably improved his coverage abilities and could start alongside C.J. Mosley at linebacker. Defensive linemen Carl Lawson, Sheldon Rankins, Jarrad Davis, and Vinny Curry will all have significant roles to play, as well. All in all, this should be one of the most improved defenses in the NFL.
2020 New York Jets Betting Stats
ATS +/-: -4.3
Total +/-: -1.5
2021 New York Jets Betting Outlook
The Jets were not a profitable team to bet on last year as they had the second-worst record overall and the fourth-worst record against the spread. However, you can almost throw those results out given how different this roster is on both sides of the ball. The Jets do play in a tough division that includes the Dolphins (11-5) and Bills (12-7) who had the two best records in the NFL against the spread.
One of the most inefficient and turnover-prone teams in the league last year, I’m expecting New York to be much more efficient this season. The Jets play the Panthers, Patriots, and Broncos to start the year, three very beatable teams, so there could be some value betting on them at the beginning of the year. Be wary, though, as betting on a team with a rookie quarterback can be a wild ride.
Super Bowl Odds
The Jets won’t be winning the Super Bowl this year. I feel fairly comfortable making that statement. At +15000, they have the fourth-longest odds to win the Super Bowl. Besides being one of the worst teams in the league last year, a rookie quarterback has never won a Super Bowl and it’s quite rare for a first-year head coach to accomplish that feat as well. Nonetheless, on the off chance the Jets do find a way to bring home a championship, you could be rich if you bet on it now. If you bet $10 on the Jets to win the Super Bowl at +15000, you would profit $1,500.
While the Super Bowl is out of the question, the playoffs may not be. The Jets are currently listed at +550 to make the playoffs, the third-longest odds in the NFL. It will be an uphill battle in a division with the Bills (-350), Patriots (+130), and Dolphins (+137), all of whom are fairly likely to make the postseason. With a 7-game slate in the postseason, it is possible for four teams in the same division to make the playoffs, although it’s highly unlikely. The Jets will be much improved from last season, but they are likely one year away from making a real push for the postseason.
Win Total Odds
The Jets’ win total is currently listed at 6 which, along with the Jaguars, is tied for the third-lowest in the NFL. Only the Lions and Texans are projected to win fewer games. New York has won over 6 games just once in the past five seasons, but over a 17-game slate, they would need to go 6-11 in order to reach this mark. Betting the over here depends on how quickly you think all of these new, young pieces come together and how much you buy into Robert Saleh as head coach. New York is tied for the 19th-easiest schedule in the NFL, so the opportunity is certainly there for them to beat this mark.
New York Jets Players Future Odds
A rookie hasn’t won the MVP award since Jim Brown did it in 1957, but could Zach Wilson buck that trend? He’s currently listed at +20000 to win the MVP award. A far more likely outcome for Wilson would be winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award which he’s currently listed at +1000 for. He’s behind Trey Lance (+800) and Justin Fields (+850) in the odds, two players who aren’t guaranteed to be the starting quarterback for their team in Week 1 and who Wilson was drafted ahead of; that makes him a clear value.
Elijah Moore and Michael Carter, both at +2500, could be interesting values as well for OROY. Moore had 86 catches for 1,193 yards and 8 touchdowns in just 8 games in his junior season at Ole Miss. Carter ran for over 1,000 yards in each of his junior and senior seasons at North Carolina and had 11 total touchdowns last year. Alijah Vera-Tucker is an interesting value at +10000 as a guaranteed Day One starter.
My favorite longshot award winner on the Jets is C.J. Mosley for Comeback Player of the Year at +12500. You can’t even find him on every book as he’s such a longshot – DraftKings doesn’t even list him – but Mosley is going to remind the world why the Jets handed him a contract worth $17 million per year. Mosley has only played two games since joining the Jets as he injured his groin in his debut game with the team before opting out of the 2020 campaign due to COVID-19 concerns. Mosley is a former four-time Pro Bowl and four-time second-team All-Pro linebacker. He’ll look to return to that elite form under Robert Saleh who played a major role in Fred Warner becoming the highest-paid linebacker in the NFL.
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