2022 The American Express: Odds, Predictions, Picks

Odds for the American Express have shifted to the surprising big-name playing in this one, Jon Rahm. We move from Hawaii to California to kick off a couple of Pro-Am style tournaments and The American Express is an interesting one. This year is going back to playing the three courses, and we are seeing a couple of bigger-name players in the field. It is also worth noting that the cut line will be after Saturday’s round, as everyone plays the three courses. Stay up to date with all the American Express odds here.

2022 The American Express Odds

Select Dropdown to view various 2022 The American Express Betting Odds

PGA West & La Quinta Country Club Course Notes

As mentioned above, American Express is reverting back to three courses this year. The PGA West (Stadium Course) is a Par 72 and the longest of the three courses but not by much. It was designed by Pete Dye and that means it is the more challenging of the three courses. The final three holes can break your entire round if you are not careful. The Stadium course is going to be played on Sunday as well, so golfers will be playing this one twice if they make the cut.

As for the Tournament Course, this one is designed by Jack Nicklaus and plays slightly easier than Dye’s. It is a similar length course and we should expect slightly lower numbers here compared to the Stadium course. We will move away from Bermuda greens on these courses, as those were played in Hawaii.

The La Quinta Country Club course should be a breeze for these golfers and look for the ones at the top of the leaderboard to be taking advantage of this style of course. It is laid back and any pro golfer should have a field day.

Given this will be another relatively low-scoring event, we want to find golfers that score well. Birdies or Better Gained (BoB), Par 5 Scoring, and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee are the areas I am looking to attack these courses. We also want to continue to look at putting and approach, which are pretty universal each week.

The American Express Recent Winners

  • 2021 – Kim Si-Woo (-23)
  • 2020 – Andrew Landry (-26)
  • 2019 – Adam Long (-26)
  • 2018 – Jon Rahm (-22)
  • 2017 – Hudson Swafford (-20)

The American Express Course History Notables

This is not a consistent tournament that golfers play in on a regular basis. Jon Rahm won back in 2018 and finished 6th in 2019, then proceeded to take the next two years off. Patrick Cantlay finished second last year and T9 in 2019. Abraham Ancer is a name to watch out for, he has finished T5, 2, T18, and 76 in his last four events here. Otherwise, this is a mixed batch for course history.

There are a few players with noticeably poor course histories here. Russell Henley has missed the cut in his last four events. Luke List has missed in three of his last five, while Patton Kizzire has missed the cut in two of the last three and has not finished higher than T42.

2022 The American Express Picks & Predictions

There are a few bigger names participating this year and it is always hit or miss who shows up to these Pro-Am tournaments early in the year. Using the stats above in addition to course history, recent history, and value of odds, you can find American Express Picks & Predictions below.

Outright Winner

Tony Finau (+2500) – While Tony Finau comes into this tournament with some mediocre stats and numbers over his last 24-36 rounds, we know Finau is one of the top scorers on the tour. Much like how I talked about Hideki Matsuyama the last few weeks, if Finau’s putter is even remotely average, he is going to be a contender. He has a neutral track record on Poa greens and these aren’t particularly tough greens. With 12 Par 5 holes on this course, Finau ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Par 5. This can be a tournament to get Finau back on track after some average finishes over his last 36-50 rounds.

Top 5 Picks

Jhonattan Vegas (+1200) – Love the value of Jhonattan Vegas getting a top-five finish this week. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 16th in BoB Gained, 13th in Birdies, and 17th in Opportunities Gained. Vegas also ranks 30th in SG: Par 5 and 9th in SG: Off the tee. This is certainly a field where Vegas can contend and the course can play well to him. He also ranks 8th in driving distance and 5th in SG: Tee to Green.

Top 10 Picks

Harold Varner III (+550) – The scoring model loves Harold Varner this week, who ranks 26th in BoB Gained and 38th in Opportunities Gained. Varner has crushed Par 3s of late, ranking first in Strokes Gained: Par 3. He also ranks 12th in Strokes Gained: Total and 10th in Approach. His putting has been better of late and that trend needs to continue for this to work out.

Top 20 Picks

Cameron Young (+700) – Digging for some value, Cameron Young is a name to keep an eye on. While he is a bit boom or bust, you get some great odds on a rather low-scoring course. Young ranks 33rd in SG: Total but 4th in BoB Gained and overall Birdies. He brings a pretty leveled approach to his Par and Par 5 scoring and if you are playing DFS, he ranks 12th in DK points. He is an upside pick who can score well but has plenty of risk with his blowup potential.

All stats from Fantasy National

Jason Guilbault has been writing and podcasting in the fantasy sports world for over five years. You can find his work at Daily Fantasy Cafe. He is an avid Tottenham fan, and follows the Boston sports teams. When he isn’t diving into stats, he is enjoying the outdoors or down at the local brewery.

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