After two days of action in Brookline, the odds to win the U.S. Open have shifted – but not enough to knock Rory McIlroy out of the top spot. McIlroy entered the tournament as the slight betting favorite at +1100, and his odds have dropped to +380 heading into the weekend. McIlroy still sits one shot off the lead, however, setting up a potentially thrilling two days of golf.
Who’s Favored to Win the U.S. Open Entering Saturday?
After 36 holes, two-time major champion Collin Morikawa and surprise challenger Joel Dahmen are in the lead at 5-under par. Oddsmakers are starting to believe in Morikawa, who sits just behind McIlroy at +430. He’s proven he can finish strong in some of golf’s biggest events, and he had the best day of any golfer on Friday at 4-under. Also at +430 is reigning U.S. Open winner Jon Rahm after he finished 3-under on Friday. Dahmen isn’t among the betting favorites just yet – he’s only finished top-40 in a major once in his career – but he’s done enough to move from +35000 entering Thursday to +2000 ahead of Saturday.
Reigning Masters champion Scottie Scheffler finished 3-under on Friday, at one point holding a share of the lead, though he sits two strokes off of the lead after 36 holes. Scheffler is just behind Rahm and Morikawa at +700 to win, while Aaron Wise (+1600), Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2000), Sam Burns (+2000), and Dahmen follow. Hayden Buckley, 4-under heading into Saturday, is the only golfer within a stroke of the lead with odds worse than +2000. Buckley sits at +5000 and might intrigue any bettor who believes in miracles.
The most distant odds after the cut belong to Seamus Power, Sam Bennett, Adam Schenk, Travis Vick, and K.H. Lee, who all enter Saturday at +32000.
Who Didn’t Make the Cut?
Friday at The Country Club also brought disappointment for more than half the field, as 92 of 156 competitors didn’t make the cut. The U.S. Open has a stringent cut line, with only the top-60 finishers (plus ties) through two rounds moving onto the weekend. The cut line settled at +3 and will send 64 golfers into Round 3.
Of the 92 players cut, Cameron Smith had the best odds to win the tournament. Smith entered Thursday’s action at +2100, while Shane Lowry (+3000), Viktor Hovland (+3200), Tony Finau (+3400), and Sungjae Im (+3600) also fell short. Other notables who just missed the cut include Cameron Young, whose hole-in-one on the sixth hole Friday made headlines, and Mito Pereira, who nearly won the PGA Championship last month.
LIV Golf defector Phil Mickelson was among the most disappointing players of the first two days, missing the cut at 11-over. Four LIV Golf members made the cut, but none are under par through 36 holes. Dustin Johnson and Patrick Reed both lead all LIV Golfers at 1-over, while nine didn’t make the cut altogether. Given how tightly packed the leaderboard is, it’s still worth keeping an eye on Johnson (+10000) and Reed (+15000).