San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams NFL Player Props & Picks (9/17/23)
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After demolishing Pittsburgh, the San Francisco 49ers battle the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. Check out below for 49ers vs. Rams player prop odds, predictions, and best bets, including George Kittle, Nick Bosa, Javon Hargrave, and Brandon Aiyuk.
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams Player Prop Picks
Both teams enter this game undefeated. Which players on the 49ers or Rams will shine?
George Kittle Anytime Touchdown (+195 FD) & 2+ Touchdowns (+1900 FD)
Brock Purdy took over the starting job in Week 13 last year, and his connection with Kittle was crystal clear. From Week 13 to 18, Kittle easily led the 49ers at eight red zone targets and scored seven touchdowns. That’s on pace for 22 red zone targets and 19 touchdowns across an entire season. For context, Rob Gronkowski owns the single season tight end touchdown record at 18.
Kittle faces a Rams squad that allowed the seventh most touchdowns to tight ends last season, and Los Angeles’ secondary is only worse this year. He didn’t stuff the box score against Pittsburgh, but Kittle still saw six targets. Look for the big man to find the end zone in Week Two. Based on his odds, he must do so about 33 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value. For two touchdowns, he must score a pair about 5 percent of the time.
Nick Bosa Over 0.75 Sacks (+110 DK) & Javon Hargrave Over 0.75 Sacks (+130 DK)
Per PFF, 71 defensive linemen recorded at least 400 pass rush snaps last season. Bosa ranked second in both sacks and pass rush win percentage, while Hargrave – an interior defender – was 14th and 11th, respectively. This duo harasses the quarterback to the highest degree, and they face a 35-year-old statue in Matthew Stafford. Of the 32 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks under pressure last season, he had the second highest pressure to sack ratio at 27.1 percent. It’s nothing new, as Stafford has struggled to escape pressure over the past three seasons.
Los Angeles’ offensive line dominated Seattle in Week One, but the Seahawks possess one of the worst pass rush units in the NFL. The 49ers are a completely different animal, as pressure is coming from all directions at all times. Look for Bosa or Hargrave (if not both) to bring down Stafford at least once during their contest. And with the 49ers expected to hold a lead, Stafford will run more passing plays than usual – a necessity for sacks.
For Bosa to hold a positive expected value, he must get a sack about 47 percent of the time. On the other hand, Hargrave must accomplish this feat about 43 percent of the time.
Brandon Aiyuk Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BMGM)
Aiyuk exploded for 129 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers, but it’s not exactly surprising. He has paced the 49ers in target share and reception yards since Purdy’s first start, and his 1.82 yards per route run ranked 25th across the NFL last season (min. 70 targets, per PFF). The 25-year-old is entering his prime years, and the Rams are an excellent matchup for the Arizona State product.
Los Angeles relied heavily on Jalen Ramsey to patch their secondary, but they are hyper-exploitable now with Ramsey in Miami. Aiyuk will be guarded by outside corners Derion Kendrick and Ahkello Witherspoon. Per PFF, Kendrick allowed 571 yards in 12 games last season and a massive 114 passer rating. Meanwhile, Witherspoon allowed 264 yards in only 4 games and a 128.4 passer rating. PFF graded the Rams as the third worst secondary in Week One, and that trend should continue given the lack of talent.
Aiyuk needs to have 58 receiving yards about 55 percent of the time here based on the odds.
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