San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Player Props & Picks (1/29/23)
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Get San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles player prop picks & odds for the (1/29/23) matchup
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Player Prop Picks
In a highly anticipated matchup, the #1 seed Philadelphia Eagles host the #2 seed San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game with a spot in Super Bowl LVII on the line.
Philadelphia was the hottest team in the league for most of the season, starting off 8-0 and then 13-1 before dropping two of the final three games of the regular season. The 49ers are now the hottest team in the league with an active 12-game winning streak, including eight wins with rookie 3rd string quarterback Brock Purdy under center.
This matchup features two of the best defenses in the league, with the 49ers ranking 1st in defensive DVOA and 1st in defensive EPA, while the Eagles ranked 6th and 4th in those categories, respectively. At the same time, there is plenty of offensive firepower on both sides of the ball as well.
What will the 49ers’ weapons like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle be able to do against this Eagles defense, and how much will McCaffrey’s calf injury slow him down? Will Jalen Hurts be able to run on the 49ers’ defensive front, or will he rely more on the passing game with weapons like A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert?
Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like the most in this 49ers vs. Eagles matchup.
George Kittle over 3.5 receptions (-150 at DraftKings)
Of all the 49ers’ offensive playmakers, Kittle is the one I am most confident will have a good game against the Eagles’ defense. The Eagles have been better at covering tight ends this year than they have in the recent past, but it’s still a vulnerable area of their defense. They allowed 4.8 receptions per game to tight ends this season and have allowed tight ends to go over their receptions prop line in seven of the last nine games.
Kittle averaged right at four receptions per game this season and has at least four catches in six of his last seven games. He is a reliable safety blanket for Brock Purdy, who will need that against the relentless Eagles pass rush.
I also expect Purdy to struggle to connect with his wide receivers in this game, as the Eagles have a dominant pass defense (#1 in DVOA, #1 in EPA) led by two elite outside cornerbacks in Darius Slay and James Bradberry. With Christian McCaffrey also dealing with a calf strain and potentially limited in this game, Kittle becomes easily the most reliable target for Purdy.
If you want to chase some better odds and you’re willing take the over on 4.5 receptions instead of 3.5, then head on over to PointsBet to grab that bet at +120.
Kittle also set a new career high with 11 touchdown catches this season, and I like his +190 odds at BetMGM for an anytime touchdown in this game.
DeVonta Smith over 5.5 receptions (+122 at FanDuel)
I have been riding the over on Smith’s receptions for a few weeks now, and it has been paying off, as he has gone over his number four weeks in a row. Sportsbooks started to wise up to his late-season surge last week and increased his receptions line from 4.5 to 5.5, but that didn’t scare me away – I took the +115 odds with confidence and happily cashed in again, so you better believe I am doing the same thing this week.
Betting the over on Smith’s receptions has been as reliable a prop bet as there could be this season. He has gone over his number in 14 of his 18 games. He has had at least six receptions nine times this season and has done so four weeks in a row. Since week 13, he is averaging 6.4 receptions on 9.6 targets per game.
Before you start thinking he is due for a negative regression, consider the matchup. The 49ers are down two of their top cornerbacks from the start of the season, which means second-year cornerback Deommodore Lenoir will be the primary cover man on Smith. Lenoir is allowing a 66.3% completion rate and a QB rating of 91.2 when targeted this season.
The Eagles have proven to be a versatile offense that can score in a variety of ways depending on the matchup. Against the 49ers and their top-ranked run defense, the way to attack them is through the air. Overall they are also excellent against the pass (5th in DVOA), but they are just 18th in DVOA at defending the opponent’s #2 wide receiver. For the Eagles, thanks to the presence of A.J. Brown as the #1, the #2 WR is Smith.
The 49ers are also 30th in DVOA at defending the opponent’s #3 wide receiver, which for the Eagles is Quez Watkins. I am tempted to head over to PointsBet to bet the over on Watkins’ receiving yards at 10.5 (-125). Most other books have set his line at 15.5. Watkins did torch Lenoir the last time the 49ers and Eagles played in week 2 of last season.
91 YARDS FOR THE BIRDS. #FlyEaglesFly
📺: #SFvsPHI on FOX
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/3YLWa3OGjk— NFL (@NFL) September 19, 2021
Tempting as it would be to bet on Watkins this week, he has been too inconsistent for me to trust that, so I am sticking with Smith. But I am interested in betting the over on receiving yards for a different Eagles pass catcher…
A.J. Brown over 68.5 receiving yards (-115)
As noted above, the way for the Eagles to attack the 49ers’ defense is through the air. Don’t let the above statistic about the 49ers defense against #1 wide receivers scare you away. The #1 wide receiver against the 49ers has gone for over 100 yards for three straight games (CeeDee Lamb 117, DK Metcalf 136 and Davante Adams 153).
The 49ers are especially vulnerable to deep passes, ranking 24th in DVOA against deep passes (16+ air yards). The Eagles have been one of the best in the league at connecting on the deep ball this season. Jalen Hurts has 52 completions of at least 20 yards (7th most in the league) and 11 of those have gone for 40+ (tied for 5th). Most of those deep completions have gone to Brown, who has 23 catches of at least 20 yards (5th) and six catches of at least 40 yards (tied for 3rd).
Brown was quiet last week with just three catches for 22 yards and was visibly frustrated on the sideline. Coach Nick Sirianni admitted this week that Brown’s frustration was due to a nagging injury, but was confident he will be ready to go this week, and Brown has not appeared on the injury report. Brown also explained his mindset as the team’s top receiver.
A dance between AJ Brown and reporters looking to get to the root of his sideline frustration Saturday, starting with a question about the mentality of a top-end receiver. pic.twitter.com/ILRWzHyv2y
— Tim McManus (@Tim_McManus) January 25, 2023
Prior to last week’s game, Brown had gone over 68.5 receiving yards in six straight games, and was averaging 5.8 catches on 9.8 targets for 110.8 yards over that span. Multiple times this season the Eagles have made a point of getting a player involved after a frustratingly quiet game, and I expect the same to happen with Brown this week.
Oh, and the last time Brown faced the 49ers, in week 16 of last season with the Titans, he did this:
Last time AJ Brown played the 49ers he owned their secondary
11-145-1 TD after not catching a pass until 7:30 left in 2Q #FlyEaglesFly
pic.twitter.com/MYjSbIi0pk— The Reason (@7he_Reason) January 23, 2023
Hammer the over on Brown’s receiving yards in this game. I am also interested in his anytime touchdown odds at +160 and his longest reception prop at 26.5 yards (-110).
