The Super Bowl has finally arrived and you can find the most up-to-date odds, lines, and predictions for the game here. With just one win standing in the way of a Vince Lombardi trophy for each team, there’s a lot at stake for everyone with some skin in the game. Below are the 6 best Super Bowl game props for Super Bowl LVI.
Super Bowl Game Props
Over 2.5 Players Will Attempt a Pass (+155)
Any brilliant trick plays you have up your sleeve, whether it be a rendition of the Philly Special or the NOLA onside kick, need to be used on Sunday lest they be wasted in a comparatively meaningless game next season. The Rams have already experimented with letting OBJ throw the ball this postseason, and the result was a 40-yard completion to Cam Akers in the third quarter of their wild card game against the Cardinals. While the Bengals haven’t let any player other than Burrow attempt a pass during the playoffs, they did let WR Tyler Boyd throw a pass during the regular season that was complete for 46 yards. Cooper Kupp’s dad was an NFL quarterback, and no doubt he also possesses the skill set to throw a pass on Sunday if McVay so chooses. Regardless, both teams have an affinity for trickery and the requisite pieces to implement it. You never know when you’re going to have this opportunity again, so may as well let it rip. At +155 odds, this one’s a steal.
First Half Under 23.5 Pts (-105)
One of the safer bets heading into the Super Bowl is a bet on one of these offenses starting out slow. Whether it be nerves, media distraction, or some combination of the two, it tends to take offenses about 3-4 drives to settle into the flow of the game in the Super Bowl. Over the last 5 Super Bowls, the average combined point total in the first quarter has been 6.4 with no team eclipsing the 9 point mark over the last half decade. While this year’s game features a plethora of offensive talent on both sides, it also features two of the more inconsistent teams. Despite leading the league in yards per play for much of the regular season, the Rams have shown a tendency to get more conservative as the playoffs have gone on — opting to run the ball more and take fewer shots downfield. The Bengals, similarly, have connected on less of their deepshots, becoming more reliant on 5-10 yard chunk plays in the process. Both of these trends lend themselves to the under and I also love the momentum each defense is playing with right now. The Rams defensive line has played lights out in 3 postseason games, not allowing any team to rush for more than 61yards, and the Bengals defense has been a top 5 overall unit since their bye week in week 10.
The Opening Kick Will Not Be A Touchback (-118)
This bet seems counterintuitive but the data oddly enough backs it up. Only 2 of the last 30 opening kickoffs in the Super Bowl have resulted in touchbacks. Supposedly the league uses a commemorative Super Bowl ball exclusively for the opening kick that’s slightly heavier than the conventional game ball kickers are used to. There are also reports out that Rams K Matt Gay injured himself in warmups before the Buccaneers game in the Divisional Round. If the Rams end up kicking off, this could certainly be a factor as we’ve already seen him come up short on a 47 yard field goal this postseason. I also think part of the reason why so few kicks are touchbacks is because kick returners feel a sort of “carpe diem” type of pressure to attempt a return. It’s one of the biggest opportunities these players will have and I definitely think that lurks in the back of their mind — especially since Devin Hester took the opening kick back in Super Bowl XLI, memorializing the moment forever.
Los Angeles Rams to Call First Timeout (-125)
Sean McVay’s reckless use of timeouts this postseason has made headlines even though it’s something he’s done his entire career. Dating back to 2018, no coach has called more so-called “wasted timeouts” than McVay (i.e., timeouts that are used for operational reasons rather than time management reasons), according to FiveThirtyEight. Over the last 9 weeks of football including the regular season, the Rams have been the first team to call timeout in each week. McVay clearly trusts this veteran squad with time management and as such he deems any timeout necessary if it means he can get the play right. Even last weekend in the Conference Championship round, he wasn’t afraid to use precious second half timeouts in a close game if it meant he had a chance to dial up the perfect play. Given the historical precedent and the odds of something going awry early in a game this big, I love this at -125.
Sack Before Touchdown (-135)
This prop is a perfect complement to the first half under bet. We see it every year — teams struggle to punch it into the end zone in the first half of the Super Bowl. Both of these defenses have been solid in the red zone all postseason with the Rams allowing touchdowns on just 47 percent of opponent red zone drives and the Bengals allowing touchdowns on just 37 percent of opponent red zone drives. Layer in that the Rams defense will have an opportunity to feast on an offensive line that has struggled against interior pressure all season, and this game sets up up perfectly for a sack before a touchdown. Which player do you think has an easier time getting into the flow of the game, the QB under duress or the defensive tackle with a clear mismatch?
There Will Be A 2 Point Conversion Attempt (-110)
Just as going for it more on fourth down has become widely accepted as the analytically savvy thing when the other team’s offense is rolling, attempting 2 point conversions has become universally recognized as the most effective way to climb out of a two score deficit. In the Super Bowl, 2 point conversions are even more popular than they are during the regular season when teams aren’t playing for all the marbles. Whether one of these teams is trailing late and trying to make a comeback (like the Patriots vs the Falcons in 2017) or trying to increase a marginal lead before the fourth quarter (like the Eagles vs the Patriots in 2018), there’s a precedent for going for 2 in a number of different in-game scenarios. Put simply, if one of these teams grabs a 2 touchdown lead in the second half, a 2 point conversion try is very likely. Heck, we even saw the Bengals do it last weekend in their comeback against the Chiefs. Both of these coaches like to let it rip, and a 2 point conversion attempt would very much be par for the course for both of these teams.