AGA Releases World Cup Wagering Predictions

On Nov. 15, the American Gaming Association (AGA) released its wagering projections on the 2022 FIFA World Cup, as they do for most major sporting events, such as the Super Bowl or March Madness. 

Sweet Spot: Over 21 & Under 41

They are estimating 20.5 million Americans to wager around $1.8 billion on the World Cup, per 2,213 responses from their survey. In other words, three in 10 viewers (29%) who plan to watch the World Cup, plan to wager on the event. 

GenZers (born 1997-2012) and Millenials (born 1981-1996) are the most likely to bet on this year’s event, with 11% of the GenZ and 14% of the Millennial population planning to place wagers. Meanwhile just 8% of GenX (born 1965-1980) and 2% of Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964), plan to bet.

It's time for their next adventure 🇧🇪✈️#FIFAWorldCup | @BelRedDevils pic.twitter.com/GIoRiLg05p

— FIFA World Cup (@FIFAWorldCup) November 15, 2022

2022 World Cup Offers More

The last World Cup took place in June of 2018, a mere month after PAPSA was overturned, meaning there were little to no legal sports betting options available to World Cup fans. With 31 (and counting) legal states, this year will offer a very different experience. 

Good thing, because 78% of respondents noted that placing their bets legally is important to them. 

“As the first World Cup with widespread availability of legal sports betting, this will certainly be the most bet-upon soccer event ever in the U.S.,” said AGA Senior Vice President Casey Clark. “With more than half of all American adults having access to legal betting options in their home market, legal sports betting will deepen American fan engagement in the most-watched sporting event in the world.”

Unlike other big sporting events like the Super Bowl or March Madness where bracket or square contests are significantly more popular, traditional forms of betting will represent the bulk of bets for the World Cup. Of the 20.5 million projected bettors, 72% are expected to place their wagers via online sportsbooks, retail sportsbooks, or a bookie. 

Betting Breakdown

The AGA broke down their expectations for each method of betting (note that single bettors will place wagers in more ways than one, hence the total number below exceeding 20.5 million).

• 9.8 million bettors plan to bet online.
• 6.0 million bettors plan to place a casual bet with a friend.
• 4.7 million bettors plan to bet at a physical casino sportsbook.
• 4.1 million bettors plan to bet with a bookie.
• 3.5 million bettors plan to place a bet as part of a paid pool or fantasy contest.

The only methods of betting accounted for in the survey are those above. So it does not include those who will partake in offshore betting or other forms not listed. Though Clark urged people to “bet responsibly” by “setting a budget, keeping it fun, learning the odds and playing with legal, regulated operators.”

Who Will Win?

According to the survey, most Americans would put their money on Team USA to win the World Cup. Brazil, Argentina, and Germany were among the next most-popular choices for Americans.

Americans may be the only ones betting on Team USA this year as their odds to win are as high as +22500 at some sportsbooks. Brazil leads the way as a +400 favorite, followed by Argentina at +550. Check out the World Cup odds page for a deep dive into the outlook on the 2022 FIFA World Cup. 

Qatar and Ecuador kick off the long-awaited World Cup on Nov. 20 with Ecuador slightly favored over the host team. Happy betting!