The New York mayoral election odds have been posted, and Andrew Yang is the favorite to win. Yang, 46, grew his following when he ran in the Democratic presidential race. Yang dropped out of this race and went on to support Joe Biden.
His next strategy to grow his political presence is to become the Mayor of New York. Vegas thinks he has a great chance to lead the city.
Books Favor Yang
Yang is more of a businessman than a politician, which hurt him when he ran to be the presidential nominee of the Democratic party. New York City’s mayoral position is an excellent place for any politician to grow their political name. This year’s race is expected to heavily favor the Democratic party because of the presidential election results.
Yang has a 52% chance to win the mayoral election or 10/11 odds. According to the books, the next ranked candidate is Eric Adams, who is currently the Brooklyn Borough President and a former New York Senator.
Some books have marked Adams as high as 5 to 1 to win the mayoral race. His average percentage to win amongst bookmakers is just under 16.7%. Poll analysts have given Yang a 17% chance to win, so this election could be very close.
Thus far, the majority of the bets have been placed on Yang, which is why there is such a disparity between pollsters and Vegas. Pollsters will wait to see how the race develops before improving Yang’s winning probability.
Who Else is Running?
The other candidates in the election show the disparities between bookmakers and election experts. Maya Wiley is a top-five candidate amongst bettors, but she is only being given a 7% chance by pollsters.
Scott Stringer and Ray McGuire are also running to be the Mayor of New York City. Vegas and pollsters have disagreed on these two candidates’ chances as well. This is because bettors are betting generous early odds, which is causing books and polls to diverge. This happened in the 2020 presidential election when, at one time, President Trump had over a 90% chance to win in Vegas.
The 2021 Election
The 2021 New York Mayoral Election is still months away. The vote will take place in November of 2021, so a lot will change before election day. Before then, Republicans and Democrats will need to hold their mayoral primaries to determine which two candidates will be facing off.
The Democrats are heavily favored to continue their reign in New York City. The incumbent, Mayor Bill de Blasio, is a Democrat, so he will likely be replaced by a fellow party member after serving his two terms.
Mayor de Blasio was the first Democrat to lead the city since the 1980s when David Dinkins was in office. De Blasio faced significant scrutiny over his response to the COVID-19 pandemic, so this issue will most likely dominate the conversations leading up to the vote in November.