The Angels and Phillies wrap up their 3-game interleague series on Wednesday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park. Lefty Reid Detmers takes the mound for the Angels, while the Phillies are expected to start Christopher Sánchez (not yet officially announced as of this writing).
The Phillies are the betting favorites in this game with -125 moneyline odds, while the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. The prediction here is that the Phillies win and the over hits.
Angels vs. Phillies Prediction
Starting pitchers: LHP Reid Detmers (3-10, 5.03 ERA) vs. LHP Christopher Sánchez (2-3, 3.33 ERA)
As they get set to play their last game in August, the Phillies do not want this month to end, while for the Angels it can’t end soon enough.
Philadelphia has had one of the greatest offensive months in the franchise’s history, setting a new franchise record with 52 home runs (as of this writing before Tuesday night’s game).
The Phillies, who Saturday set a team record for home runs in one month (48), have homered in over 6% of their at-bats in August . . .
That blows away any other relatively full month in their history — pic.twitter.com/xtZy8CnYWv
— Bob Vetrone Jr. (@BoopStats) August 27, 2023
During the month of August, Philadelphia is 1st in slugging, 2nd in OPS and 3rd in runs, wOBA and wRC+. The Angels are near the bottom of the league in all those categories: 27th in runs and dead last in average, OPS, wOBA and wRC+.
Adding injury to insult, not only have the Angels gone 7-18 in August and virtually been eliminated from the playoffs, but superstars Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout both suffered bad injury news. Ohtani needs another Tommy John surgery and is no longer pitching this season, while Trout played only 1 game before going back on the IL with the hand injury that sidelined him on July 4.
With the direction that these teams seem to be headed, it’s hard not to like the Phillies in this game, especially considering they should have the edge in the starting pitching. They have not officially announced a starter as of this writing, but based on the schedule of their rotation they are expected to send Christopher Sánchez to the mound.
Sánchez has been one of the biggest pleasant surprises of the Phillies’ season. He currently leads all their starters in ERA and his 3.41 xFIP ranks 11th in baseball. One bad outing on August 5 (6 earned over 5 innings) has spoiled some of his recent numbers, but he has still gone three consecutive outings allowing 2 earned runs or less while pitching at least 6 innings.
The Angels’ August struggles have been particularly pronounced against lefties like Sánchez. They are hitting just .220 with a .581 OPS against lefties this month. That sets up well for another strong outing by Sánchez, which means the Phillies just need to do what they’ve been doing all month to win this one handily.
They are not likely to get much resistance from Angels starter Reid Detmers. The 24-year-old former 10th overall pick has had a rough couple of months, posting a 7.21 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over his last 9 starts (43-2/3 innings)
He has the ability to be a shutdown pitcher, which he showed two weeks ago when he dominated one of the best offenses in baseball on the road. He held the Rangers to just 1 hit over 7-1/3 strong innings. Imagine what his recent numbers would look like without that outing.
It would not be a complete surprise if Detmers pitched well against the Phillies, even with the way they’ve been raking recently, but it would certainly be unexpected. We’re going to choose to expect the expected in this game, and while it’s tempting to lay the -1.5 runs to get the +160 odds, the safe play is to take the Phillies moneyline at -125.
We’re also going to double down on the Phillies offense continuing to surge by betting the over on 8.5 runs at -15 odds.
Angels vs. Phillies Prediction: Phillies moneyline (-125), over 8.5 runs (-115)
Note: all metrics above taken before Tuesday’s games
Angels vs. Phillies Odds
The Phillies are the betting favorites with -125 moneyline odds, while the Angels are at +105 on the moneyline.
The Phillies are laying -1.5 runs on the spread at +160 odds, while the Angels are getting +1.5 runs at -192 odds.
The over/under in this game is set at 8.5 runs with -115 odds on the over and -105 odds on the under.
Angels vs. Phillies Key Matchups
Here are the key matchups that could decide Angels vs. Phillies.
Reid Detmers vs. Trea Turner
The Phillies’ hot bats are the biggest reason we picked them in our Angels vs. Phillies prediction.
It’s no coincidence that the their recent offensive surge has coincided with Trea Turner finally finding his swing. It’s well documented by now that Phillies fans gave the struggling star a standing ovation on August 4 to try to boost his confidence and help him bust out of his season-long slump.
Since August 4 when Phillies fans gave Trea Turner a standing ovation in an attempt to turn his struggles around, Turner’s hitting .353 with a 1.007 OPS. Over that span, he leads the team in hits (24), doubles (6), and total bases (42). pic.twitter.com/tlLJDy6VMi
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) August 23, 2023
To update those numbers, since August 4 Turner is hitting .356 with a 1.084 OPS and leads the team in hits (31), doubles (8), and RBI (20, tied with Bryce Harper). His 7 home runs since then have nearly matched the 10 he had hit all season leading up to that game.
So if the Angels want to slow down the Phillies, then Detmers needs to slow down Turner.
Another reason to like the Phillies today is the advantage they have in the bullpen.
The Phillies are 7th in the league with a 3.65 bullpen ERA this season, and they have posted an even better mark of 3.10 this month. The Angels’ bullpen is 22nd with a 4.53 ERA, and have been even worse in August with a mark of 6.12 (28th).
Anything can happen on any given day in baseball, but when one team has the better starting pitcher, better bullpen, and hotter bats, that typically is a good combination for winning. At the very least, it makes it very hard to pick against them.
Angels vs. Phillies Starting Lineups (Projected)
Angels Starting Lineup
1B Nolan Schanuel (L)
DH Shohei Ohtani (L)
2B Brandon Drury (R)
3B Mike Moustakas (L)
C Logan O’Hoppe (R)
CF Mickey Moniak (L)
RF Hunter Renfroe (R)
SS Luis Rengifo (S)
LF Randal Grichuk (R)
Phillies Starting Lineup
LF Kyle Schwarber (L)
SS Trea Turner (R)
DH Bryce Harper (L)
RF Nick Castellanos (R)
2B Bryson Stott (L)
1B Alec Bohm (R)
3B Edmundo Sosa (R)
C Garrett Stubbs (L)
CF Johan Rojas (R)