Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Anytime Touchdown Picks
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Anytime TD Picks
Plenty of scoring is expected in the Super Bowl 57 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. The total for this year’s big game is set at 50.5 points. That means there is likely to be multiple touchdowns scored by each team, but which players are most likely to find paydirt?
That is what we are trying to answer when we place our bets on anytime touchdowns in Super Bowl 57. This is one of the most popular player prop bets to make, and with several players getting better than 2-1 odds, it could also be one of the more profitable bets to make.
Betting on an anytime touchdown is simple: you are picking a player you think will score a touchdown at any point in the game. It’s important to note that for an anytime touchdown bet to win, the player must catch a pass in the endzone or carry the ball over the goal line. Passing touchdowns by the quarterback do not count for anytime touchdown bets – that would be too easy! Check out our anytime touchdown strategy guide for more of the nuances behind making this popular bet.
In this article we are going to suggest a few of our favorite players to bet on for anytime touchdowns in Super Bowl 57. This doesn’t mean that these are the players we think are most likely to score touchdowns. Rather it means these are the players we think represent the best value when considering their odds for scoring an anytime touchdown. That’s why I am not including Travis Kelce, who seems like a mortal lock to score a touchdown, but whose best odds as of this writing are -114 at Caesars.
Jalen Hurts (+100 at FanDuel)
The fact that Hurts is available with plus odds represents a very good value. Hurts has rushed for 15 touchdowns in 17 games this season, setting a new NFL record for quarterback rushing touchdowns in a season (including postseason). He has scored a rushing touchdown in 11 of his 17 games this season (65%) and seven of his last nine (78%), including both playoff games.
The fact that Hurts has scored in back-to-back games should alleviate any concerns that his lingering shoulder injury will prevent him from running the ball, especially in the red zone. The Eagles are virtually unstoppable when running a QB sneak with Hurts, and the Chiefs have the second-worst red zone defense, allowing touchdowns on 67.3% of red zone trips. They have also allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks and tied for the 6th-most rushing touchdowns.
Hurts may not seem like the best value on the board at +100, but the plus odds combined with the greater than 50% likelihood he scores makes this a very strong play.
Kenneth Gainwell (+370 at FanDuel)
I am doubling down on the Eagles’ league-best rushing offense against the Chiefs’ below average rushing defense. Gainwell has looked like the Eagles’ number one running back in the postseason, leading the backfield in snaps and rushing yards in both playoff games. He is getting 10 more touches per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season and his snap share has increased from 28.1% in the regular season to 39.6% in the playoffs.
Some of that can be attributed to game script, as the Eagles may have chosen just to rest Miles Sanders with big leads in both playoff games. Still, Gainwell’s production and explosiveness can’t be ignored, and he has earned the opportunity to see another heavy workload in the Super Bowl. That gives him a similar chance as Sanders to find paydirt, but he is getting +370 odds compared to Sanders’ +120.
But this pick is not just about Gainwell’s rushing – he is also the Eagles’ best pass-catching running back, and this is another area where the Chiefs’ defense is vulnerable. They allowed the most receptions and the fourth-most receiving yards to running backs this season and ranked 28th in pass defense DVOA against running backs. They also allowed four receiving touchdowns to running backs, tied for 7th most in the league.
Gainwell led the Eagles’ backfield in targets and receiving yards, and 35% of his opportunities (carries and targets) came via the passing game. That was significantly more than Sanders (9%) and Boston Scott (10%). Gainwell is clearly the back the Eagles want on the field in passing situations, and in a close game there will be plenty of passing situations.
Isiah Pacheco (+140 at BetMGM)
Besides Travis Kelce, Pacheco has the shortest odds for an anytime TD of any Chiefs player, but I still like his value the best. The Eagles’ defense is much stronger against the pass than against the run, so despite the Chiefs’ prowess through the air, I expect them to run the ball more than usual in this game.
Pacheco is already seeing a higher volume in the playoffs with 14 touches per game and a 46% snap share compared to 10.8 touches and 30.3% of snaps in the regular season. He has led the Chiefs’ backfield in touches in 10 of their last 11 games, including the playoffs. He was also the Chiefs’ preferred goal line back in the regular season, logging 61.3% of the team’s carries inside the 10-yard line despite starting just 11 games.
If the Chiefs go to anybody not named Travis Kelce in the red zone, Pacheco is the clear second option. That makes him a pretty good value to score a touchdown at +140 odds.
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