Arkansas goes on the road to face #13 LSU on Saturday (9/23/23). Check out below for Arkansas vs. LSU odds, picks, and predictions: our best bet is over 54.5 total points.
Arkansas vs. LSU Prediction & Best Bet
This contest is a battle between explosive weapons. Quarterbacks Jayden Daniels and KJ Jefferson are currently tied for the 11th most Big Time Throws in the nation per PFF, but the duo can also rack up yards on the ground. Jefferson has 80 rushing yards and a touchdown, while Daniels owns 157 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Legitimate dual-threat quarterbacks typically wreak havoc on college defenses, and these two are no exception.
Both players also have a plethora of weapons at their disposal. LSU receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr are likely future NFL first round picks, and they face an average Arkansas secondary that struggled to contain BYU. Given that Arkansas has to stop running back Logan Diggs, a powerful offensive line, and Daniels’ scrambles, they likely run single high coverage at a higher rate, which leaves their corners on an island more frequently. Against these monstrous LSU receivers, that’s a scary thought. Look for the Tigers to force a “pick your poison” situation – either prevent deep passes or stop the run and scramble.
Star running back Raheim Sanders remains out for Arkansas, but AJ Green will be one of if not the fastest player on the field. Of the 165 running backs with at least 25 attempts, Green ranks 18th in yards after contact per attempt and 27th in breakaway percentage (per PFF). His straight line speed, change of direction, and strength can help Arkansas avoid third and longs and pick up chunk plays. Plus, the Tigers must also navigate receiver Andrew Armstrong, who is 9th in the nation in contested catches and runs like the wind. These two will open up the field for Jefferson’s run game and Arkansas’ others weapons, including Isaac TeSlaa, Jaedon Wilson, and Luke Hasz.
Overall, the offenses involved should put up points against the opposing defenses. Both possess numerous players that can breakaway at any moment, so the offensive potential is higher than most games.
Arkansas vs. LSU Prediction & Best Bet: Over 54.5 Total Points
Arkansas vs. LSU Betting Odds
The LSU Tigers are favored by a whopping 17.5 points, but LSU backers should be searching for a 17 line to provide a little push security. The over under sits at 54.5 total points, which is in the middle of the pack for Saturday games. For Arkansas’ +600 moneyline to have a positive expected value, they must win this matchup about 14 percent of the time.
Arkansas vs. LSU Key Matchups
Which teams will win the key matchups and boost their win probability?
LSU is ranked 111th of 133 teams in tackling per PFF, which isn’t surprising considering the defense already has 31 missed tackles. AJ Green and Andrew Armstrong both reportedly hit 22 miles per hour over the summer, so this weakness will likely allow Arkansas to pile up explosive plays for long gains. Plus, Jefferson is a massive quarterback at 6’3” and 247 pounds who isn’t afraid of contact, so the Tigers will find it difficult to stop the Razorbacks on third and short.
Late Drive Turnovers
Turnovers help the over if they result in the defense bringing the ball close to the red zone, but late drive turnovers are an over killer. Of the 93 quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks last season, Daniels had the lowest Turnover Worthy Play rate, while Jefferson notched the 15th lowest. Both of these quarterbacks mostly avoided mistakes (although Jefferson had a fumbling issue), and it’s imperative that they finish out drives here.