Atlanta Falcons Vs. Carolina Panthers NFL Player Props & Picks (11/10/22)
On Thursday Night Football in Week 10, we’ll see a rematch of a divisional matchup that produced a whopping 71 points just a couple of weeks ago. That game script was wonderful for player props, but we shouldn’t expect nearly as many points given the weather in Carolina.
It’s unclear exactly how bad the storm will be, but this is all of the information that I have at the time I’m writing this at 11 PM EST on Wednesday night. Earlier today, I saw this report indicating horrendous weather:
The @Panthers game Thursday night weather:
On and off rain with winds 20-30 mph. Bring the rain gear! #KeepPouning pic.twitter.com/KGVxf2JMlV— Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) November 9, 2022
Then, just an hour ago, a different account I follow posted the following information:
9pm simulated radar for Charlotte tomorrow night. Looks like we will see occasional downpours and a wind of 10-20 mph with higher gusts. Not an all night soaking rain but it will be wet at times #NFL #DFS #Weather pic.twitter.com/rGlhpWiqID
— NFLDFSWeather (@nfldfsweather) November 10, 2022
The truth likely lies somewhere in between, but at the very least, I’d venture to say we can assume there will be some inclement weather affecting this game. As a result, both teams will likely take more of a run-heavy approach. Let’s see if we can find some value in the player props markets with that knowledge. You can use the Falcons vs. Panthers player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks. Let’s get to work.
Marcus Mariota Under 162.5 Passing Yards (-113 FanDuel)
I would have already been intrigued by this number prior to the news about the weather as Marcus Mariota has gone over this number in just one of his last six games. Of course, that was against the Panthers, but we certainly shouldn’t be expecting the same game environment as that prior matchup.
Mariota is averaging just 153.5 passing yards over his last six games, and I believe this will be a below-average outing in that regard. We know the Falcons have no problem leaning on a run-heavy approach as they rank second in the NFL in rushing attempts and third in rushing yardage.
The Panthers’ defense is coming off one of its worst outings of the season, but we should expect them to bounce back on a short week. The potential return of star safety Jeremy Chinn would certainly help, but even if he’s not back, I’m fading Mariota in this matchup.
P.J. Walker Under 171.5 Passing Yards (-115 BetRivers)
Similar to the Marcus Mariota play, I’m locking in the under on P.J. Walker’s passing yards now before the odds move. Walker did just have 317 passing yards against the Falcons, but much of that came in a whirlwind fourth quarter where the Panthers scored 21 points – they had put up just 13 points through the first three quarters.
Even in that game, Walker wasn’t particularly accurate as he completed just 52.8% of his passes. He was able to take advantage of the Falcons’ injuries in the secondary, but Atlanta got some reinforcements at the deadline with their trade for Rashad Fenton – he could make his team debut in this game.
In addition to the weather and worse game environment overall, you’re also getting the boost of knowing that Walker could get benched in this game if things aren’t going well like he was last week. It would be far from shocking if we see Baker Mayfield in this game. Overall, there are tons of reasons to be fading Walker this week.
Cordarrelle Patterson Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel)
I’ll probably only be making the two plays above official, but I do expect the Falcons to employ a very run-heavy approach this week. Cordarrelle Patterson made his return from injury last week, but he only played on 39% of snaps. If I had more confidence in him taking on his normal workload, I’d be much more bullish on this play.
However, even in his limited action last week, Patterson took 13 carries for 44 yards and scored twice. Therefore, if you want to play his touchdown prop, I don’t mind that at all. While Atlanta is dealing with some injuries on their offensive line, Carolina’s defensive line is a bit banged up right now, and they struggled mightily defending Joe Mixon last week.
