Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins Player Props (10/24/21)

It’s been a demoralizing season for both of these teams as the Dolphins sit in the cellar of the AFC East at 1-5 and the Falcons are last-place in the NFC South at 2-3. We’re getting close to the point where we can cross both of these teams off in terms of playoff contention, so every game moving forward is crucial. With the pressure mounting, these teams’ best players will be relied upon to produce this week. Let’s take a look at the most trustworthy player props in this game.

Matt Ryan Over 278.5 Passing Yards

The Dolphins’ defense has fallen apart in an ignominious fashion as they’ve allowed 319.7 passing yards per game over the past three weeks, the second-most in the NFL. With their top two cornerbacks, Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, both on the injury report, Miami’s secondary have failed to mask what has been an underwhelming pass rush. Matt Ryan is playing better as of late with 312.5 passing yards per game over his past two outings and he’ll benefit from having Calvin Ridley back in the lineup (more on him in a minute). I’m expecting a relatively high-scoring game here as neither defense is very capable right now, and Ryan should have a strong passing performance against a struggling Miami team.

Calvin Ridley Over 76.5 Receiving Yards

I expected Calvin Ridley to break through as a top-five fantasy wide receiver with Julio Jones no longer on the team, but it’s been a slow start to the year for him. Ridley has topped this mark just once all year, in Week 4 before he missed Week 5 due to personal reasons prior to the team’s bye week. Ridley is back at practice and should get back to his typically large target share – he has averaged 10.5 targets per game this year. This prop bet requires some projection as Ridley has not been particularly productive this season, but I’m expecting a big afternoon from Matt Ryan and it starts with his WR1 in Ridley in a very favorable matchup.

Salvon Ahmed Over 7.5 Receiving Yards

The Dolphins’ skill position groups have been a mess this season, and it’s fairly impossible to rely on any one of the running backs to be productive. However, Salvon Ahmed has emerged as a significant contributor in recent weeks and has gone over 12 receiving yards in each of his last three games. Ahmed is coming off a 27% snap share, his second-highest of the season, and has averaged 2.6 targets per game when he has played 10+% of snaps. The Falcons have been slightly below average against pass-catching running backs as they have allowed 49.5 yards per game to the position through the air, the 13th-most in the NFL. All this adds up to a decent enough receiving game for Ahmed to bet this prop.

Jason Sanders Over 6.5 Kicking Points

Jason Sanders has averaged 6.2 kicking points per game this year, so this is a solid line for him. However, when you look closer, Sanders has scored 8 points in each of the two games this year in which Miami has scored 20+ points, including last week against Jacksonville. The Dolphins have an implied team total of 22.5 points this week and I’d bet on the over on that total against a weak Atlanta defense. The Dolphins have struggled to finish drives with touchdowns this season as they’ve scored a touchdown on just 57.14% of their red-zone trips, the tenth-lowest rate in the NFL. Sanders should get at least a couple of field goal opportunities in this game and I’m betting on him to score plenty of points against the Falcons.