Get NFL player props and picks for the Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks matchup on (9/25/22)
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks Player Prop Picks
The Atlanta Falcons have played two surprisingly close games to start the year, but have come up tragically short in both instances and have nothing to show for it. The Seahawks on the other hand scored a shocking win in Russell Wilson’s failed “revenge game,” but got slammed by the rival 49ers in week 2. Let’s take a look at some player props in this battle of the birds, as the Hawks try to get back over .500 and the Falcons pursue their first win of this young season.
Geno Smith o212.5 Passing Yards
While Geno hasn’t cracked 200 yards yet, he’s been 5 or less yards away in each game. While these numbers are both below his total for this week, it’s important to note that he’s played the Broncos and Niners, both of whom seem likely to be pretty solid passing defenses- both rank in the top-5 so far in PFF’s coverage rating, and Denver also has a top-5 pass rush so far by the same metric. The game script in the Broncos game was also a little funky, as Seattle was inexplicably playing from ahead the whole game and spent a decent amount of time running the clock down.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have allowed far more than 212 yards to opposing quarterbacks in their first two outings. Obviously both of those quarterbacks should better than Geno Smith- but just how good? Matt Stafford has been a shell of his championship-winning self, possibly related to the bad elbow injury news he received over the offseason, and Jameis Winston was straight up horrible in week 2 against Tampa, throwing three picks. This game should be fairly open in terms of script, as both teams will be looking to score all game, and the Falcons have a pretty middling pass defense per PFF, ranking well in coverage but horribly in pass rush. Look for Geno to have his most prolific day yet in Seattle this Sunday.
Tyler Lockett o58.5 receiving yards and DK Metcalf o54.5 receiving yards
This two-for-one bet goes hand in hand with the previous one. If we’re going to believe in Geno Smith to put up some volume, he’s going to have to leverage his two best offensive skill players. Last week was the first time we’ve seen a solid connection between Smith and one of his two star receivers, as he and Lockett linked up for 107 yards on 9 catches. Metcalf, with 35 yards, was just a big play or two away from hitting the total set for him this week, and his gamebreaking physical ability makes it possible for him to get all of those yards on any one snap. At least one of these two is a good bet to hit, and in my opinion, both should, given the amount of passes that should be throwin in this game.
Drake London o4.5 Catches
This one seems like a relative no-brainer to me; London is already establishing himself as a WR1 in Atlanta, hauling in 5 catches in his pro debut against a tough Saints team, then 8 last week against the defending world champs, and leading the team in yardage for both games in the process. He’s exceeded this number 2/2 times so far, and both against tougher defenses than this one- PFF has the Seahawks as a bottom-3 coverage defense, and in the bottom third in the league at generating pressure. Mariota will certainly be able to find his young star receiver five times on Sunday afternoon.