Get NFL player prop picks & odds for the Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup on (10/9/22).
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Picks
The Buccaneers are finally getting healthier on offense, and they will have both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the field on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Falcons are set to be without Kyle Pitts and Cordarelle Patterson, leaving their offense lighter than they’ve been used to. This game is surprisingly being played for first place in the NFC South, and there are tons of exciting players on both sides to explore for player prop wagers. You can use the player prop search tool above to find the best values in the market. Let’s get to work.
Tom Brady Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+165 DraftKings)
Tom Brady has owned the Falcons throughout his career. He has gone 10-0 straight up and 9-1 against the spread when facing Atlanta, and he’s thrown for 2.9 passing touchdowns per game in those contests. Over his last three games against the Falcons, he’s averaging 4.3 passing touchdowns per game. While the Falcons boast a solid cornerback tandem in A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward Jr., they rank just 28th in DVOA against the pass this year.
The Falcons allowed Jameis Winston, Matthew Stafford, and Geno Smith to all hit the over on their passing touchdowns prop in the first three weeks of the season, and those quarterbacks averaged 2.3 passing touchdowns per game. Brady should have no problem finding success against this secondary, particularly with the reintroduction of Evans and Godwin in the receiving corps.
Of course, Tom Brady is going through some personal difficulties amidst rumors of a divorce from Gisele Bundchen. While I don’t want to speculate on his emotional state too much, it’s very possible that he uses that situation as fuel for a big-time performance against the hapless Atlanta defense. The fact that you can get +165 value on this prop at DraftKings makes it one of my favorite player props of the slate.
Cade Otton Anytime Touchdown Scorer (0.5 units, +310 DraftKings)
If you want to go with one of the safer anytime touchdown scorers in this game, feel free – there are a ton of options. DraftKings has all of Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin at or near even money to score this week, and you can make a solid case for any of those players. However, I’m looking for a longshot touchdown scorer in this game, and I like the value on rookie tight end Cade Otton.
Last week, Otton played on 43 snaps (67%) and caught three passes for 29 yards. Cameron Brate suffered a concussion against the Chiefs last week and Kyle Rudolph has been a healthy scratch in three of four games so far, so there’s a strong chance that Otton could be the starting tight end on Sunday. Atlanta has allowed 75.4 receiving yards per game to tight ends this year, the fourth-most in the NFL, so Otton is a solid flier option in this game.
Parker Hesse Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-110 DraftKings)
You’ve probably never heard of Parker Hesse, but he should be firmly on your radar this week. With Kyle Pitts out, he’s the clear next man up at tight end for the Falcons. Hesse has actually out-snapped Pitts over the last two weeks, and he’s coming off his best game of the season with one catch for 22 yards. While he’s been more of an in-line blocking presence for the Falcons, they will need him to be a pass-catcher this week as they are without Pitts and Cordarelle Patterson.
The Falcons are 10-point underdogs this week, meaning they will likely be in a pass-heavy game script. While Tampa Bay has a great defense, they have been vulnerable to tight ends this year as they have allowed 66.2 yards per game to the position, the sixth-most in the NFL. Of course, some of that is due to having to face Travis Kelce last week, but they were below-average in that metric last season as well. Regardless, Atlanta has limited pass-catching options this week. We know Hesse will be on the field, and 10 yards simply isn’t a high threshold.