Baltimore Ravens @ Chicago Bears Player Props (11/21/21)

In week 11 the Baltimore Ravens travel to Chicago to play the Bears.  At 6-3 and leading the AFC North, Baltimore is averaging 19.8 points on the road and Chicago is averaging 20 points per game at Soldier Field.  The Ravens have lost two of their last four games, scoring a combined 27 points in those losses.   The Bears have scored over 24 points in a game twice this season.  Baltimore is a 6-point road favorite and the over/under is 45.

Mark Andrews Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

The Bears pass defense is allowing 226.1 yards per game ranking them 10^th in the league.  Baltimore’s passing attack is averaging 260 yards per game, 10^th in the NFL.

Tight End Mark Andrews is one of my favorite players in the NFL.  The top three tight ends in the league are Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and George Kittle, but I would rate Andrews just below those players.  He’s a tough player and a security blanket for Lamar Jackson.

The Oklahoma product is one of the most important pieces to the Ravens offense, consistently making clutch catches.  In the loss to Miami, he had six receptions for 63 yards and Baltimore’s only touchdown of the game.  

On the season, the former Oklahoma Sooner has 48 receptions for 623 yards and four touchdowns: averaging 69.2 receiving yards a game.  

Andrews is the eighth player in Ravens history with at least 200 career receptions; he has 204 receptions, averaging 50.5 yards per game in his four years in the NFL.   

Chicago’s defense has been hit with injuries all season long, Khalil Mack is now out for the season and safety, Eddie Jackson is questionable for the game on Sunday, but did practice late this week.  Marquise Brown has suffered from an illness this week and might not be at full strength against the Bears, thus I see Andrews being targeted more than usual.  I predict the Ravens tight end will have around 65-70 yards receiving going over 59.5 receiving yards.

Justin Fields Under 215.5 Passing Yards

The Ravens pass defense is allowing 298.6 yards per game, ranking them 31st in the NFL. Chicago’s air attack is averaging 144.1 yards per game, last in the NFL.  Andy Dalton started the first two games of the season against the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals.  When Dalton suffered a knee injury, Justin Fields was inserted into the lineup.  The 11^th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft has started the last seven games of the season.  

On the season, the former Ohio State Buckeye has thrown for 1,282 yards, completing 59.4% of his passes with four touchdowns, averaging 6.9 yards an attempt.  The Bears #1 has thrown for an average of 142.4 yards per game this season.

In the loss to Pittsburgh in week 9, Chicago’s rookie quarterback threw for a career-high 291 yards with a touchdown and an interception.  Fields has thrown for over 200 yards twice in nine games and has exceeded 214.5 passing yards once this season.  

With the Bears offensive line, a liability, it’s important for the Bears to use designed rollouts that allow Fields to use his athleticism to make plays.  

While Fields had his best game of his career in terms of passing yards in week 9 against the Steelers and the Ravens have the 31^st ranked pass defense, I would take the under in terms of passing yards for Fields which is at 215.5.  Asking Fields to go almost 75 yards over his average passing yards per game is difficult, I could see the Bears leaning on their running game and playing a more ball-controlled offense.  

David Montgomery Over 60.5 Rushing Yards

After a four-week absence, David Montgomery returned to the Bears lineup in week 9 against the Steelers on MNF.  In the loss to Pittsburgh, he ran for 63 yards on 13 carries.

Montgomery leads the Bears in rushing with 372 yards on 82 carries and has scored three touchdowns: averaging 4.5 rushing yards per attempt.  This season he’s averaging 74.4 rushing yards per game. 

In his third season, he’s rushed for 2,331 yards on 571 carries: averaging 64.8 yards rushing per game in his career.

With a rookie quarterback behind center for the Bears, I would expect Matt Nagy to give Montgomery between 15-20 carries in the game against Ravens.  On a most likely chilly day at Soldier Field, I would expect Montgomery to rush for about 65-70 yards thus going with the over on the line set at 60.5 rushing yards.