Baltimore Ravens vs. Arizona Cardinals Week 2 (9/15/19): NFL Betting Picks, Lines
Last Week’s Results: 8-4
All Time Results: 8-4, +4.39 Units
Contents
Arizona Cardinals +13.5 (-120) @ Baltimore Ravens – .75 Units
In the NFL, you are never as good as your best day and never as bad as your worst day. While the mutiny going on in South Florida might challenge the ladder notion, I feel good about betting against the Baltimore Ravens coming off their 49-point shellacking of the Miami Dolphins this past Sunday. I feel like they’ll come back to earth this week.
Always super tough and intense, Baltimore has never been a team that has leaned into margin. They are not the 2018 Rams – nor do I think John Harbaugh seeks to instill the same mindset as offensive teams such as Sean McVay’s. (Harbaugh actually likes to win Super Bowls when he gets there). Since 2011, the Ravens are only 3-11 ATS when favored by more than 10 points, including 1-4 ATS when favored by 13 or more.
Lamar Jackson followed up his immaculate performance with the press conference line of the week. “Pretty good for a running back,” he said after the game with a chuckle. No doubt haters of his game should deservedly eat crow. However, when we look at the full data on Jackson, Sunday’s offensive explosion does seem to be the exception. While he posted an excellent, 6-2 record, the Ravens scored 30+ only once in Jackson’s eight starts in 2018. Jackson threw 5 TD passes in his first 10 attempts against Miami. But it was only the 3rd time in 9 career starts that he threw for more than 1 passing touchdown in a game.
Defensive backs are still a strong suit for Arizona even without Patrick Peterson (PED suspension). I like for the ball-hawking Cardinals to take away the long touchdowns Miami allowed. In turn Baltimore will return to its bread and butter, eating up chunk rushing yards against the Cardinals below average Front 7.
The Cardinals, Chandler Jones leads the NFL in sacks over the last 4 years. I like for Baltimore to counteract his pass rush with a heavy dose of read-option plays and HB dives for Marvin Ingram.
Historically, Harbaugh teams have not repeated dominant performances. The Ravens are only 3-7-1 ATS over the past 3 years in games following >10 point victories. After >20 pt victories, the Ravens are just 3-6 ATS over the past 6 years, including 0-2 SU & ATS after beating the Dolphins by 30+.
The Cardinals players are well accustomed to this big underdog role. They were 10 point dogs 7 times last year, and went 3-3-1 ATS, including 3-2 ATS when getting 12 or more points.
Moreover, I don’t think last years woes are emblematic of this teams’ talent. Last season, the team dealt with a clueless coaching staff trying to stitch together and offensive line that lost all 5 starters.
I saw lot of good in the Cardinals 27-27 home tie with the Lions in week 1. Avoiding defeat with a historically inexperienced rookie QB (only 1 year as a starter at Oklahoma) is impressive by itself. Further, showing the unflappability to come back from 18 points down in the 4th Quarter speaks to a new day in the desert. I look for Murray to grow from his first start and be an above average QB by the end of the year.
Both teams have familiarity dealing with extremely mobile quarterbacks in practice. In general, familiarity makes me lean towards closer games with less big plays.
I predict Baltimore runs amok and wins easy. But doesn’t cover. Baltimore 27, Arizona 20.
Arizona Cardinals +11 (+120) @ Baltimore Ravens – .125 Units
Arizona Cardinals +9 (+160) @ Baltimore Ravens – .125 Units
Sprinkling some units on alternative spreads for this game.
Of the last 14 times the Ravens entered the game as >10pt favorites (13-1 SU) the Ravens won by more than 8 just five times.
Baltimore Ravens +180 to win AFC North – .25 Units
We don’t want to overreact to one blowout win against a team that for all intents and purposes is punting on competitive football this season. The Ravens likely didn’t become a juggernaut overnight. Still, in comparison to the other AFC North teams the Ravens suddenly look like the class of their division.
In a big spot for team pride and camaraderie, the Steelers produced a complete dud in New England. Pittsburgh looked completely speculative in their downfield attack and completely toothless in their running game.
For their part, the Browns, too, look like they have a long way to go to realize their potential.
The difference between Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh & Cleveland is their team make up. The Ravens don’t need Lamar Jackson to be an MVP to dominate their opposition. The Browns & Steelers conversely have built their teams on high powered vertical attacks leaning on their star quarterbacks. In the event any of the starters go down, I like the Ravens to respond best with their backup QB.
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