Baltimore Ravens Vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Player Props & Picks (11/7/22)

Get Baltimore Ravens Vs. New Orleans Saints player prop picks & odds for the (11/7/22) matchup

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Baltimore Ravens Vs. New Orleans Saints Player Prop Picks

On Monday Night Football, we’ll see a matchup between two cross-conference teams vying for playoff positioning. The Saints are 3-5 at the moment but can be tied for first place in the NFC South with a win while the Ravens sit atop the AFC North at 5-3. Both of these teams have significant injuries impacting their prospects for this game, particularly in the player prop department. In this article, I’ll break down my favorite player prop value plays for this game. You can use the Ravens vs. Saints player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks. Let’s get to work.

Isaiah Likely Over 34.5 Receiving Yards + Ravens Over 14.5 Total Points (-110 DraftKings)

With Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman out this week, Isaiah Likely will be an integral part of the offense. Andrews left partway through the team’s last game against the Buccaneers, and Likely finished with six catches for 77 yards and a score. The Saints have notable injuries in their secondary, and they are ranked just 21st in PFF’s pass defense grades, so Likely has a great opportunity ahead of them.

My biggest concern with this prop is that the Saints rank first in DVOA against tight ends while allowing just 30.7 yards per game to the position, the second-fewest per Football Outsiders. However, who’s the best tight end they’ve faced this year? Zach Ertz? Irv Smith Jr.? Hayden Hurst? Their schedule hasn’t been overwhelming, and we’re early enough in the year that we’re still working with a relatively small sample size.

Rather than take the -130 juice on the receiving yardage prop over 34.5, I’m building a small SGP for Likely. This can be a great strategy for any player props that have juice that you don’t want to pay for. The Ravens have scored over 14.5 points in every game this season, and it would certainly be surprising to see them fail to reach that number against a fairly average Saints defense.

DraftKings Banner Update $1,050

Alvin Kamara Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114 Caesars)

The sportsbooks are sadly starting to wisen up to Alvin Kamara’s role in the Saints’ passing game, and you have to pay some significant juice to get his receptions prop. Kamara has 6+ catches in each of his last four games, and he has averaged seven catches over that span. Between Andy Dalton’s lower aDOT and injuries to Saints receivers, Kamara has been very reliable as a short-area receiver.

While I’m staying away from the juice on the receptions prop, I’m fine taking his yardage at this number. Kamara has been over this number in three of his last four games, and he’s averaging 67 receiving yards per game over that span. The Ravens have also been vulnerable against running backs, allowing 45.5 receiving yards per game to the position, which is the seventh-most per Football Outsiders.

The addition of Roquan Smith should help the Ravens’ pass defense against running backs somewhat. However, Smith has a PFF coverage grade of just 44.4, which ranks 72nd out of 81 linebackers with 60+ coverage snaps this season. It’s not like he’s an elite player in that respect, so I’m not overly concerned by his potential ability to take Kamara out of the passing game.

BetMGM Banner $1,000 Risk-Free Bet

Kenyan Drake Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-110 DraftKings)

Gus Edwards hasn’t been officially ruled out of this game on Monday Night, but he didn’t practice on Friday. He’s reportedly traveling with the team, unlike Andrews, but even if we see him in the game, he likely won’t be able to handle a normal workload. Still, I can’t recommend this prop in an official capacity until we know what Edwards’ status is.

That said, Kenyan Drake has been impressive to me with a 5.1 YPC average, and this is a solid matchup as the Saints rank 17th in yards per carry allowed. Drake has gone over this number in two of his last three games with those two being 60+ yard performances, so this prop might be a tad underpriced given the potential role he could receive on Monday.

Caesars Promo Code $1,250 Bet

I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.

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