Baltimore Ravens Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Player Props & Picks (10/27/22)
Baltimore Ravens Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Picks
Before the season started, everyone had this circled as one of the best Thursday Night Football games of the year, but both teams have underwhelmed. While the game itself may not be a Super Bowl preview, that doesn’t mean we can’t find plenty of value in the player prop betting markets. In this article, I’ll explore the best values on the board. You can use the Ravens vs. Buccaneers player prop search tool above to compare the odds available from different sportsbooks.
Lamar Jackson Longest Completion Under 33.5 Yards (-119 Caesars)
There has been a significant shift in the Ravens’ offense in recent weeks with reduced efficiency for Lamar Jackson as a passer. His average completion rate has dropped to 59.6% from Week 4 after he completed 64% of his passes over the first three weeks. Last week, the Ravens ran the ball at a 30% rate, and they’re likely to be very successful on the ground against this Bucs defense (more on that in a minute).
Jackson’s average depth of target (aDOT) has also been reduced as he’s averaging a 7.58 aDOT over the last four weeks compared to a 10.8 aDOT from Week 1 to 3. He doesn’t have a completion over 33.5 yards since Week 3, and he’s been under 22 yards in three of his last four games. Injuries to Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews have been a major reason for this, as well.
Further aiding this prop is that Jackson could be under pressure in this game. The strength of the Bucs’ defense right now is their pass rush, as they rank eighth with a pressure rate of 24.7%. The Ravens rank just 19th in adjusted sack rate allowed, and left tackle Ronnie Stanley is questionable for this game, so I don’t expect the downfield passing game to be unleashed.
Gus Edwards Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM)
The Ravens didn’t waste any time in getting Gus Edwards involved in the offense as he saw 16 of the team’s 32 running back carries last week. Edwards had a similar ACL injury to J.K. Dobbins in that it wasn’t a clean tear and required more rehab time, but he appears to be healthier than Dobbins was when he first came back.
The Buccaneers’ run defense isn’t what we’ve come to expect from them as they rank below-average in EPA and success rate allowed. Last week, they coughed up 181 yards on 26 carries (6.9 YPC) to D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard, neither of whom are exactly Pro Bowl-caliber running backs. Look for Edwards to take full advantage.
Chris Godwin Over 6.5 Receptions (-114 FanDuel)
After missing the first few weeks of the season, Chris Godwin has been heavily relied upon by Tom Brady with an average of 10.3 targets per game. Over the last two weeks, his 25 targets are third behind only Austin Ekeler and Tyreek Hill. However, he has an aDOT of just 7.0 yards on average as he’s been the outlet underneath for Tom Brady as he’s gotten rid of the ball at lightning speed.
This week, Godwin faces a Baltimore defense that has struggled against slot receivers. The original plan had been for veteran Kyle Fuller to start on the outside and Marlon Humphrey to play in the slot, but Fuller’s torn ACL threw a wrench into that. Rookie fourth-rounder Damarion Williams has been their starter in the slot, and he’s allowing the highest passer rating among slot corners with 40+ coverage snaps.
