Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Player Props & Picks (9/17/23)

The Chicago Bears take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon. Check out below for Bears vs. Buccaneers player prop odds, predictions, and best bets, including Mike Evans, Justin Fields, and Cole Kmet.

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Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Picks

The stunned Bears face a Buccaneers squad that surprisingly defeated the Vikings in Week One. Which players are destined for a huge game?

Mike Evans Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards (-115 BMGM)

Evans has been one of the best deep threats in recent memory. He ranked in the top eight in each of the past three seasons in 20+ yard targets, and Evans continued his downfield threats against the Vikings by securing three of these long targets. Baker Mayfield isn’t hyper-accurate, but he’s not afraid to unleash it when he sees an opening. Given Evans’ contested catch abilities, Mayfield doesn’t need to be pinpoint accurate either.

Evans faces a mediocre Bears secondary that got absolutely torched by the Packers. The future Hall of Famer should make quick work of them and find himself open frequently. Chicago’s atrocious pass rush won’t force Mayfield to throw quickly too, so Evans will have plenty of time to get downfield and beat his man.

For Evans to have a positive expected value, he must notch a 22-yard catch about 53 percent of the time.

Cole Kmet Anytime Touchdown (+350 PointsBet)

Kmet paced the Bears in red zone and inside the ten-yard-line targets last season, and he secured two red zone targets against the Packers. For context, if that was stretched out to an entire season (34 targets), it would have led the NFL. The tight end’s substantial catch radius negates Fields’ accuracy issues, which is a massive plus. Fields also heavily relies on his first reads, which indicates Kmet in the red zone.

For Kmet Anytime Touchdown to own a positive expected value, he has to score a touchdown about 22 percent of the time. That’s roughly 3.7 touchdowns in an entire season – Kmet nearly doubled that at seven touchdowns last year. It’s always nerve-racking to back a Bears touchdown scorer, but Kmet’s odds are too valuable to pass up.

Justin Fields Over 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (-213 Caesars)

Fields looked rough in Week One. He often overlooked open receivers, stalled if his first read was covered, and didn’t take shots downfield. Fields still has a long way to go as an NFL quarterback; however, despite all his struggles, he managed to throw a touchdown. That’s all we need here.

The running game featuring Roschon Johnson, Khalil Herbert, and Fields himself can help the Bears avoid third and longs. New acquisition DJ Moore, who has three seasons over 1,000 yards, provides Fields with an established target. Moore’s presence opens up the field for Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet too. Fields’ weapons are nothing special, but they are capable of being viable options that can win red zone routes.

For this prop to have a positive expected value, Fields must throw at least one touchdown about 68 percent of the time. Essentially, if this game was simulated ten times, we would need Fields to throw a touchdown in seven of them.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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