Belmont Stakes Odds, Post Positions, Picks, Predictions: Bet On Sovereignty Over Journalism & Baeza?
Betting odds for the 2025 Belmont Stakes project the third and final leg of the Triple Crown to boil down to the top horses from the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. Sovereignty emerged victorious at the Derby but skipped the Preakness. Journalism took second in the Derby before storming back in the Preakness. Let’s inspect the latest Belmont Stakes odds, with help from veteran handicapper Mike Wilkening.
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Belmont Stakes Betting: Post Position & Morning-Line Odds
| Post Position | Horse | Morning-Line Odds | Current Odds (June 6) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Hill Road | 10-1 | 14-1 |
| 2. | Sovereignty | 2-1 | 7-2 |
| 3. | Rodriguez | 6-1 | 7-1 |
| 4. | Uncaged | 30-1 | 23-1 |
| 5. | Crudo | 15-1 | 13-1 |
| 6. | Baeza | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| 7. | Journalism | 8-5 | 6-5 |
| 8. | Heart of Honor | 30-1 | 17-1 |
Belmont Stakes Odds Shift In Baez’s Favor
For the second consecutive year, the Belmont Stakes are set for Saratoga, with Belmont Park in the midst of renovations. Monday’s post-position draw landed Journalism at the No. 7 gate in an eight-horse field. Sovereignty will break from the No. 2 gate. Morning-line odds quickly followed suit, with Journalism installed as the 8-5 betting favorite, narrowly ahead of Sovereignty (2-1).
Enter Baeza, inheriting the No. 6 gate and 4-1 morning-line odds. The John Shirreffs-trained colt has already garnered his fair share of interest, enough to shorten his odds to 3-1 at FanDuel Racing on Friday morning. In turn, Sovereignty’s odds have risen to 7-2.
Baeza has two competitive races against Journalism under his belt, possibly peaking at the right time before the Belmont. This time, he’s well-positioned for an ideal trip on Saturday.
“If there’s a horse in this group that we haven’t seen at his best yet, it’s Baeza,” Wilkening said. “His form is so unexposed. In the Derby, he had the toughest trip and was only beaten by a little less than two lengths.”
Belmont Stakes Odds & Expert Picks: Bet On Sovereignty?
After upending Journalism on a muddy track in the Kentucky Derby, Sovereignty will look to repeat this feat at the Belmont Stakes, which showcases an identical length. Junior Alvarado will continue piloting Sovereignty, serving as the jockey in two of his three races as a three-year-old. Both were first-place finishes. Following Sovereignty’s absence in the Preakness, he’s well-rested on a five-week turnaround.
Wilkening fancies Sovereignty’s “turn of foot,” referring to his quick-twitch acceleration and ability to distance himself from his competition. He tallied a career-best 104 Beyer Speed Figure in his most recent showing at Churchill Downs. While weather variance went his way, Wilkening isn’t letting that detract from his previous success on dry tracks, including a late push at the 2025 Florida Derby that resulted in a second-place finish. Generally, Gulfstream Park favors horses with an early cushion.
“When you look at the times and trips in the Derby, he (Sovereignty) outran everybody and ran the best race,” Wilkening said. “I also tend to think he’s going to get every opportunity to get into a great running position. There’s some speed up front. I think it’s going to be a rider’s race. Alvarado rides him perfectly.”
Given the generous price point, Wilkening will have a straight bet on Sovereignty in his pocket.
Potential Belmont Stakes Exotic Bets
Regarding trifectas and superfectas, Wilkening cited Hill Road (14-1) and Heart of Honor (17-1) as intriguing fits. A debut winner at the Peter Pan in August, Hill Road placed third behind Citizen Bull in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar in November, nearly cashing in on his 61-1 longshot odds at FanDuel Racing.
Heart of Honor finished second in all three legs of the UAE Triple Crown, including the Grade 3 UAE 2,000 Guineas, the Al Bastakiya Stakes, and the UAE Derby (G2). Although he failed to land in the frame at the Preakness, Wilkening noted that his closing speed should aid his chances of delivering a top-four finish.
“I’m looking for horses that can pick up the pieces late,” Wilkening said. “Rodriguez and Crudo have both shown they can carry their speed, but I have my questions about how they’ll fare on a mile-and-a-quarter distance, particularly against this caliber of field.”
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